Why Dak Prescott Over 26.5 Touchdown Passes Is a Strong Bet for 2025
Dak Prescott’s touchdown prop for the 2024 NFL season is set at 26.5 passing touchdowns with -102 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. At first glance, it may look like a sharp line, but when you dig into his track record and the Cowboys’ outlook, there’s a strong case for betting the over.
✅ Track Record When Healthy
The biggest key for Dak is health. When he plays 16 or more games, he clears this line with ease. In fact, he’s done it in each of his last three full seasons:
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2019: 30 TDs in 16 games
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2021: 37 TDs in 16 games.
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2023: 36 TDs in 17 games.
Last season, he ranked among the league leaders in passing touchdowns, showing that when he’s available, the volume and efficiency are there to smash this number.
✅ Dallas Defense Will Force Shootouts
Normally, the Cowboys’ defense has been one of the team’s greatest assets. But after trading away Micah Parsons, things look very different. A weaker defense means Dallas could find themselves in far more high-scoring, back-and-forth games—a perfect environment for passing overs.
Simply put: if Dallas can’t lean on a dominant defense to win 20–17 games, Dak will need to throw more to keep them competitive.
✅ Weapons in the Passing Game
Prescott has one of the NFL’s best wide receivers at his disposal in CeeDee Lamb, a true WR1 who demands targets in the red zone. Add in reliable tight ends and running backs who can catch passes, and the Cowboys’ passing offense is built to rack up points.
Dak has a long-standing ability to make the offense click, especially at home, where the Cowboys have historically been one of the league’s highest-scoring teams.
⚠️ The Injury Concern
The only thing that could derail this bet is health. Dak tore his hamstring last season, and as with any quarterback prop, one missed month can ruin an otherwise solid wager.
But if he stays on the field, the numbers say he’s more likely to finish in the 30+ touchdown range than anywhere close to the low-20s.
📊 The Bottom Line
At 26.5 touchdowns (-114 FanDuel), Dak Prescott’s passing prop is priced fairly—but history and context point toward the over being the better side. With a weaker defense, elite offensive weapons, and a proven track record when healthy, Prescott is positioned to post another strong statistical season.
Bet: Dak Prescott Over 26.5 Passing Touchdowns