Why NBA Players Sit More at the End of the Regular Season
As the NBA regular season comes to a close, it’s common to see star players taking more games off. Whether it’s labeled as “load management,” “injury maintenance,” or simply “rest,” teams prioritize keeping their top players healthy for the postseason over pushing for extra regular-season wins.
For bettors, this trend is important to monitor, as late-season NBA games often feature unpredictable lineups. Let’s break down why this happens and how it impacts betting. We already saw this in peak form last night when it was suddenly announced by the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray would be sitting out their game against the Lakers.
Playoff Positioning is Everything
NBA teams fall into different categories as the season winds down:
- Locked-In Contenders – Teams that have already secured a high playoff seed (like the Celtics, Thunder, or Cavaliers) often rest their stars in meaningless games.
- Teams Fighting for Seeding – Squads battling for playoff positioning (such as teams in the 3-6 range or trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament) may continue to play their stars but could still strategically rest them on back-to-backs.
- Eliminated Teams – Lottery-bound teams have no incentive to win, leading to younger players getting more minutes while veterans sit.
This strategic resting can make betting on late-season NBA games tricky, as star players who were expected to play could be ruled out at the last minute.
The Regular Season Doesn’t Mean What It Used To
Over the years, NBA teams have become less concerned with regular-season records. The primary goal is to be healthy for the playoffs, especially since postseason success is what defines a team’s season.
With 82 games, players are bound to deal with nagging injuries, and sitting them in the final stretch ensures they are fresh for the playoffs. This has become common practice, particularly for teams with aging superstars or players with past injury concerns.
How It Affects NBA Betting
For bettors, this trend means extra caution is needed when placing bets late in the season. Some key factors to consider:
- Check injury reports early and often – Star players might be game-time decisions, so monitoring lineup news is crucial.
- Look for motivation – Teams still fighting for playoff positioning are more likely to play their best players.
- Be cautious with spreads – Oddsmakers adjust lines quickly when a player is ruled out, making it harder to find value.
Final Thoughts
NBA teams prioritize the playoffs over regular-season results, making player rest inevitable in the final weeks. While frustrating for fans and bettors, understanding these trends can help you make smarter bets. Keeping up with injury reports, team motivations, and betting markets is the best way to stay ahead during this unpredictable part of the season.