Should You Bet on NFL Preseason? Pros and Cons for Smart Sports Bettors
NFL preseason is here. The pads are on, the rosters are deep, and the starters are… often sitting on the bench.
So the question becomes: should you actually bet on preseason football?
While the regular season is loaded with sharp lines and tight markets, preseason offers both hidden edges and high volatility. Let’s break down the pros and cons so you can bet smarter—or decide to wait for Week 1.
✅ PROS of Betting Preseason Football
1. Soft Lines & Market Inefficiencies
Oddsmakers don’t invest as much time into preseason lines. That means sharp bettors can find value—especially early in the week, before line movement.
Example: A coach announces starters won’t play, but the line hasn’t moved yet? That’s a window to strike.
2. Coach Tendencies Matter (A Lot)
Some coaches treat preseason like a dress rehearsal, others like a walkthrough.
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John Harbaugh (Ravens): historically aggressive, long preseason win streak
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Sean McVay (Rams): rarely plays starters, doesn’t care about winning
Knowing this gives you an edge most casual bettors overlook.
3. Motivation is Key
Certain teams (or individual players) are fighting for roster spots, and it shows. A third-string QB might go all-out just to stay in the league, while a backup corner is trying to avoid injury.
Understanding this urgency can help you predict second-half outcomes or full-game energy.
4. Lower Betting Volume = Less Public Influence
Fewer people bet on preseason, which means less line movement based on public money. That gives sharper bettors a better opportunity to beat the books.
❌ CONS of Betting Preseason Football
1. Unpredictable Playing Time
You may handicap a team based on starters—but they only play two drives. Second- and third-stringers decide most preseason outcomes.
If Patrick Mahomes plays at all in a preseason game, it won’t be for very long.
That makes consistency—and accurate projections—very difficult.
2. Lack of Injury Transparency
Injuries are common in camp, but teams don’t always report them clearly. You might back a team assuming Player X is playing… only to find out he was a late scratch.
3. Limited Data & Film
There’s minimal tape on backups and rookies. That makes it tough to evaluate matchups beyond the top few names on the roster.
You’re often betting on unknowns—or relying on local beat writers and speculation.
4. Market Moves Fast
Once inside info drops (like who’s playing), the lines can move quickly—and drastically.
If you’re not fast, you’re likely catching the worst of the number.
🧠 Preseason Betting Strategy Tips
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Follow beat writers and local reporters—they’ll often share lineup and snap count info first
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Watch for QB rotations—depth at QB makes a massive difference in preseason
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Avoid heavy parlays—volatility is too high
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Bet early if you trust your info, but monitor late news for adjustments
🏈 Final Word: Bet with Caution, Not Emotion
Preseason football betting isn’t for everyone. But if you treat it like a niche market, do your homework, and focus on coach behavior and roster battles—you can find value others miss.
Just remember: it’s a high-variance environment. Keep stakes small, stay sharp, and never assume a sharp edge in a coin-flip game.