The Home Run Surge: How Rising Power Impacts Betting in the 2025 MLB Season
Over the past several years, Major League Baseball has seen a significant increase in home runs. Whether it’s changes to the baseball, improved swing mechanics, or an emphasis on launch angle, the long ball is more prevalent than ever. As the 2025 season gets underway, bettors must adjust their strategies when wagering on home run props.
The Trend: More Home Runs Than Ever
MLB’s home run numbers have exploded in recent seasons. In 2019, the league set an all-time record with 6,776 home runs, and while numbers dipped slightly in subsequent seasons, power has remained a dominant theme. The combination of analytics-driven hitting approaches, stronger and more disciplined hitters, and even possible tweaks to the baseball itself have made home runs a bigger part of the game than ever before.
In 2024, the trend continued as teams emphasized slugging over small ball. Players such as Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Ronald Acuña Jr. routinely crushed 40+ home runs, while previously modest power hitters began seeing career-best totals.
How This Affects Home Run Betting in 2025
With home runs becoming such a major factor, sportsbooks have adjusted their lines accordingly. Here’s how it impacts betting:
1. Home Run Props Are More Popular Than Ever
Betting on a player to hit a home run in a game has become one of the most popular markets. With so many players capable of going deep, these bets have gained massive appeal. However, increased home runs also mean shorter odds.
For example:
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In previous years, a power hitter like Pete Alonso might be +400 to hit a home run in a game.
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Now, with home run frequency rising, those odds might be closer to +250 or +275.
The value isn’t as strong, but savvy bettors can still find edges by analyzing matchups.
2. Matchup-Driven Betting Is Key
Not all home run hitters are created equal, and neither are the pitchers they face. When betting on home runs, consider:
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Pitcher HR Rate: Some pitchers are more prone to giving up the long ball. Betting against a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly park is a strong angle.
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Ballpark Factors: Certain stadiums, like Coors Field (Colorado) or Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati), are known for boosting home runs.
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Weather Conditions: Wind blowing out at Wrigley Field can turn routine fly balls into home runs.
3. Parlaying Home Run Bets for Big Payouts
Many bettors now take advantage of same-game parlays featuring multiple players to hit a home run. While difficult to hit, these bets can offer massive returns.
For example:
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A parlay of Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts to both homer in a game could pay out 10x or more on a successful wager.
Final Thoughts
Home runs are dominating modern baseball, and betting markets have adjusted accordingly. If you’re looking to bet on home runs during the 2025 season, focus on matchups, ballpark effects, and favorable weather conditions. While the odds may not be as high as they once were, smart bettors can still find ways to capitalize on MLB’s power surge.
Ready to cash in on the home run trend? Do your research, pick your spots, and swing for the fences!