Xam’s Gem(s):
Astros Money Line -122
The Astros lost Game 1 yesterday and now face a virtual must-win game in Game 2. Lose tonight, and you have to win 4 of 5 games to win the series, with at least 2 of those wins having to come on the road. Valdez didn’t pitch well in his last postseason start, but he has plenty of experience with 73 innings pitched in the playoffs and overall has a 3.82 ERA in the playoffs. He also had a 3.35 ERA at home this year. Nathan Eovaldi has been great in the playoffs thus far, but Eovaldi did get hurt and struggle in the 2nd half of the regular season. The Astros know they need this game, so expect to see all of their premium relievers tonight. The crowd will also be motivated to be loud early and often. The Astros are battle tested and have been here before.
Phillies Money Line -164
Of all the teams left, no team has more confidence than the Phillies. They finished off their heated rival in the Division Series, the Atlanta Braves, and now get to host the NLCS. The Diamondbacks are also confident, as they haven’t lost yet this postseason and swept their division rival LA Dodgers right out of the playoffs. However, in the playoffs, this Phillies team and crowd are just at another level. Zack Wheeler has been excellent this year in the playoffs and historically has pitched well in the playoffs. Zac Gallen has also been good in the playoffs and had a good year this year, but he did struggle on the road this year, with a 4.42 ERA. He also had over a 4 ERA after the All-Star Break. This is not an environment that the Diamondbacks are used to.
Cowboys/Chargers Over 50.5 Points -115
Both teams have the offensive talent to drop 30 points in this game. The Chargers are getting healthier with stud running back Austin Ekeler due back in the lineup. Justin Herbert broke his finger on his left hand in their last game but had the bye week to get healthy and figure out how to navigate the injury. The Cowboys are coming off a game where they got embarrassed by the 49ers. After losing by 32 in front of the country, the offense will be ready to go and put that nightmare behind them. However, the defense is struggling mightily without cornerback Trevon Diggs, and the passing attack of the Chargers should be able to take advantage.
Xam’s Prop(s):
Dak Prescott Over 253.5 Passing Yards -110
Dak and the entire Cowboys offense had a horrific showing in their last game. Dak and head coach Mike McCarthy would love nothing more than to get the QB right on primetime. We all know McCarthy loves throwing the ball. The Chargers have been iffy in the passing game this year, and Dallas has shown an ability to be explosive in the passing game. Dak is going to have to keep up with Herbert and the explosive offense the Chargers have, so expect him to drop back to pass early and often.
CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions -128
There have been rumblings that Lamb is frustrated with his role in the offense, and now the Cowboys need their best wide receiver to show up in the biggest way. Lamb is still averaging 7 targets per game this year, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get 10+ looks tonight. The Chargers have struggled at times this year in the secondary, and the Cowboys may try to get Lamb involved early with short passes as well. The Cowboys need Lamb to have a big game to win tonight, so the game script will be there for Lamb to have a big impact.
Gerald Everett Over 2.5 Receptions -166
Everett acts as a safety valve of sorts for this offense. The loss of Mike Williams gives Everett more looks, even if some of those looks will go away with Austin Ekeler returning. The Cowboys have an elite pass rush so there will be a need for the Chargers to utilize quick passes to neutralize the rush. Getting your big, athletic tight end room to work is a great way to take pressure off your QB who’s dealing with a broken finger. Everett is also very efficient, catching 13 of 14 passes thrown to him this year.
Austin Ekeler Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -114
Ekeler is finally back after suffering an ankle injury in Week 1. All he did in Week 1 was put up 164 total yards. The Chargers will be itching to get Ekeler involved early and often. They will need an efficient running game to keep the pressure off Herbert. Given that Ekeler also had the bye week to rest up, and the Chargers need a win to avoid falling back under .500, Ekeler should be in for a full workload. The Cowboys have not had the same defense since Trevon Diggs went down, and a lot of their energy will go towards slowing down Herbert and this elite passing attack.