Picks For 10-23

Picks For 10-23

Picks For 10-23 150 150 The Ultimate Lineup

Xam’s Gem(s):

Phillies Money Line -180

The Phillies are looking to punch their ticket to the World Series tonight. They are undefeated at home in the postseason, and they have proven to have a distinct advantage playing in front of their fans. Aaron Nola has been awesome in the postseason, pitching to a dazzling 0.86 ERA in 18.2 innings pitched this postseason. Merrill Kelly had a good year for the Diamondbacks this year, but he got whacked in Game 2 of this series in Philadelphia. The Phillies won the first 2 games of this series 15-3, and needless to say, the crowd will be pumped as soon as the gates open. Philadelphia is ready to party, and they have the team, and pitcher on the mound, to get it done.

Astros Money Line -130

The road team has won every single game in this series so far, but Game 7 is an entirely different story. The Astros are the battle tested team, and they know what it takes to win these types of games. The Astros also already hit Max Scherzer in this series, who is starting for the Rangers tonight. The Astros have the better bullpen. The Rangers finished just outside the bottom 10 in bullpen ERA this year, and the Astros had a top 10 bullpen ERA this year. It’s going to be a tight, scrappy game, but the team with more experience has their fans behind them. The Astros have the experience and pedigree to get it done.

49ers/Vikings Over 43.5 Points -115

The 49ers are coming off their worst offensive game of the year, but Kyle Shanahan has had extra time coming into this game, and he’s too smart and creative to be held down by a questionable Vikings defense. Christian McCaffrey is going to play tonight, and could see more work than usual with Deebo Samuel out. The VIkings, even without Justin Jefferson, know how to move the ball, and especially so at home. Kirk Cousins and Kevin O’Connell have had time to adjust without Jefferson and should be able to do enough offensively. The 49ers may do the bulk of the heavy lifting, but Cousins and the Vikings put up 20 last week against KC. A similar effort will put us in a good position to cash this over.

Xam’s Prop(s):

Aaron Nola Over 17.5 Outs Recorded -132

Aaron Nola is a certified stud, and has been electric in the postseason. He needs to go 6 innings for this bet to cash, but it’s hard to imagine manager Ryan Thomson wants to go to anyone in his bullpen given how they performed in Arizona. Nola is averaging over 6 innings per start in the postseason, and at home this year, Nola averaged just under 7 innings per start. Of course, it’s predicated on Nola getting off to a good start and keeping his pitch count down, but he will be given every opportunity to go deep in this game.

Kirk Cousins Over 241.5 Passing Yards -110

Cousins has thrown for at least 284 yards in every home game this year, and in 2 of those home games, he threw for 340 yards or more. Not having Jefferson hurts of course, but Cousins is well trusted and with a suspect run game, Cousins will be given every chance to chuck the ball tonight. The 49ers know how to get after the QB and make life hard, but the Vikings will need an effective Cousins to stay in this game. If the Vikings defense can’t keep the game close, that’ll just force the Vikings to pass the ball even more.

Alexander Mattison Over 17.5 Receiving Yards -110

Mattison has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games, and he has 7 targets in 2 games this year, including last week. Losing Jefferson has caused the Vikings to be more creative, which includes getting the running back involved in the passing game. The 49ers also have an excellent pass rush, so expect to see some designed screens and quick passes to try and neutralize the rush.

T.J. Hockenson Over 50.5 Receiving Yards -110

Hockenson certainly isn’t shorted on his targets. In 5 of Minnesota’s 6 games this year, he’s gotten 8 or more targets. Him and Cousins formed a connection early on and in this game, it’ll be more important than ever. The Vikings are creative offensively and will do whatever they can to get Hockenson the ball. He’s faster than he looks as well. He’s gone over 50 yards 3 times this year and has as many as 78 receiving yards this year. 2 of those 3 times came at home.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 Receptions -186

Aiyuk is the top wide receiver on the team with Deebo Samuel out with an injury. Last week when Samuel got hurt, Aiyuk had 10 targets. Now that Kyle Shanahan has had time to prepare a gameplan without Samuel, we should see Aiyuk involved early and often. Even with all of the mouths to feed in this offense, Aiyuk has gotten no less than 6 targets in every game this year. Shanahan will likely do whatever he can to get the ball in Aiyuk’s hands, including some easy screens and motions to get him free from defenders.

KJ Osborn Over 3.5 Receptions -148

Osborn is now the number 1 wideout with Justin Jefferson out with an injury. In the last 2 games, Osborn has 14 targets. Cousins knows he needs Osborn for the Vikings to have a shot in this game. If the Vikings go down early and are forced to throw, that’ll lead to more opportunities for Osborn to make plays. There did seem to be increased efficiency from Cousins to Osborn last week as well, with Osborn catching 4 of his 5 targets on the road, and nearly putting up a season high in receiving yards too.