Picks For 10-5

Picks For 10-5

Picks For 10-5 2000 1125 The Ultimate Lineup

Xam’s Gem(s):

Bears/Commanders Over 44.5 Points -110

The Bears and Commanders both played in shootouts last week, and now have a short week to prepare for their next game. The Bears defense has been atrocious all year. They are in the bottom 5 in yards allowed, surrendering¬† 1,533 yards this year and they’ve given up the 2nd most points per game at 34.3 per game. The Commanders aren’t much better. They’ve given up 1,410 yards this year and 30 points per game. Meanwhile, both offenses have picking it up recently. The Commanders went into Philadelphia last week and did whatever they wanted to on offense in a tough environment. Now they come home to face a horrendous Bears defense. The Bears had their best offensive showing of the year last week, and should continue to find success against a defense that has given up 33 or more points in each of the last 3 games.

Xam’s Prop(s):

Justin Fields Over 189.5 Passing Yards -110

Fields has gone over this number in 3 of 4 games so far this year, and coming off his great performance last week, he should be able to continue to find success tonight. Washington has given up big chunks in the passing game for 3 straight weeks now. Outside of facing Josh Dobbs at home in Week 1, they haven’t shown an ability to slow the passing game down. Fields will only need to hit a few chunk plays throughout the game to get to this number, and with the season already spiraling out of control for the Bears, it’s time to see what Fields is once and for all.

Justin Fields Over 27.5 Pass Attempts -122

Fields attempted 35 passes last week and had arguably his best game as a pro in doing so. Fields has had 29 or more attempts in 3 of 4 games so far this year, and much of that is because his defense can’t keep games close, which forces the Bears to pass more. The Bears are coming into this game as an underdog, and if the defense struggles again, it’ll force the Bears to keep throwing like usual. Besides, the Bears need to see what Fields can do, and there’s not going to be many better teams to face than the Commanders.

Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 Receptions -130

McLaurin has become the favorite target for Sam Howell. Last week McLaurin had his best game of the year, posting 8 receptions on 10 targets. McLaurin has 5 or more catches in each of his last 3 games, and 22 targets in that span. The Commanders don’t have a ton of weapons on the outside, so McLaurin figures to be heavily targeted once again tonight. There’s no reason to think the Bears will be able to contain McLaurin either, given what we’ve seen from them this year on defense.

Logan Thomas Over 2.5 Receptions -156

Thomas has gone over this number in 2 of 3 games so far this year. Howell has shown efficiency when targeting Thomas this year, as he is 9/14 when targeting Thomas this year. Thomas should have more opportunities to exploit a weak secondary.

Curtis Samuel Over 2.5 Receptions -166

Samuel is coming off his best game of the year last week, reeling in 7 of his 8 targets. However, he’s had 3 catches or more 3 times this year, and twice has had 5 receptions or more. The Bears will likely be focusing most of their energy on containing the running game and keeping McLaurin in check, which should provide Samuel will room to operate against the weaker side of the Bears secondary.