Xam’s Gem(s):
Colts -1.5 -115
The Colts have the better weapons and are healthier coming into this game. The Patriots are missing key weapons, and they don’t have a running back like Jonathan Taylor or a wideout like Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts have been playing stout defense recently, and the Patriots have shown limited offensive capabilities this year. If the Colts can shut down the running game, they should be able to contain Mac Jones in Germany.
49ers/Jaguars Over 44.5 Points -112
The 49ers are getting healthy coming off their bye week. It’s a good thing too, as they have lost 3 straight and need a win. Kyle Shanahan may be the most gifted offensive mind in the league, and there’s no doubt he spent a lot of time during the bye week to come up with unique ways to get his playmakers the ball. Deebo Samuel coming back will be a big help for this offense. The Jaguars are also playing well and have shown an ability to score as well. The weather should be conducive for two offensively focused teams to do what they do best: move the ball and score.
Saints/Vikings Over 40.5 Points -115
The Vikings still have offensive talent and smart offensive coaches, which is why they were able to drop 31 points last week eve without Kirk Cousins. Now Josh Dobbs has another week in the system. The Saints have some offensive talent of their own, and they should be able to find success against the Vikings, who don’t have a great defense. The Saints force turnovers but they can give up some points, as evidenced by the 17 Chicago scored in the Superdome last week.
Buccaneers -2.5 -118
Tampa Bay has been a bit of an enigma this year, but they had their best game of the year offensively last week. Now they play a rookie QB who was just announced the starter in their own building. Will Levis has shown some promise, but this game can be tough for him. Todd Bowles is a veteran defensive mind who’s seen his fair share of rookie QBs and should be able to slow down the Titans offensively.
Browns +6.5 -115
The Browns have an elite defense, much like Baltimore does. Both teams will likely want to pound the rock, which will shorten the game. Deshaun Watson came back from an injury last week and looked alright, but this is a whole different test for him today. Avoiding turnovers will be key, but the Browns have shown plenty of resilience and offensive firepower. They should be able to keep this a one score game and rely on their defense to keep them in it all day.
Steelers -2.5 -156
The Steelers have an incredible defense, and they have an ability to pound the rock with two good running backs. Kenny Pickett hasn’t looked very good this year, but he also hasn’t made mistakes, and in this type of game, that is very important. Jordan Love hasn’t shown an ability to consistently make the big throws needed to win, and the only road win the Packers have this year came in Week 1 against the Bears. The Packers have struggled all year offensively, and Jordan Love will need to make some big throws today in a hostile environment for the Packers to win this game.
Falcons/Cardinals Over 43.5 Points -110
Kyler Murray is back! He’s making his long-awaited return after tearing his ACL last year. He’s coming back to a favorable matchup, as the Falcons have been inconsistent this year on defense. The Falcons looked better last week with Taylor Heinicke under center, and the Cardinals have struggled defensively all year. There is certainly some rust concerns with Kyler, but he has plenty of natural athletic ability and should make things happen today.
Xam’s Prop(s):
Juju Smith-Schuster Over 2.5 Receptions -120
The Patriots are banged up in their wide receiver room, and last week Juju took advantage. He had 6 catches and 7 targets last week. He has 4 or targets in 5 games this year, which shows Mac Jones has faith in him. The Patriots are still banged up at WR coming into this game, so he should have plenty of chances to step up for New England today.
Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 Receptions -150
Aiyuk has been perhaps Brock Purdy’s favorite target this year. Aiyuk has 5 or more receptions in 4 games this year, has 5 in each of his last 2 games, and has no game with less than 6 targets. Aiyuk should still have chances to shine today even with Deebo Samuel returning to action. This game has the potential to be a shootout, which benefits all WRs.
Chris Olave Over 4.5 Receptions -146
Olave has hit this number in each of his last 4 games and in 7 of 9 games to start the year. He’s had no less than 8 targets in each of his last 4 games and 5 games with 10 targets or more. Simply put, Derek Carr loves throwing him the ball, and it’s doubtful that the Vikings will be able to slow him down significantly.
Will Levis Over 30.5 Pass Attempts -122
Levis attempted 39 passes last week against one of the best defenses in the league. The Titans clearly have faith in their young gunslinger, and Levis has plenty of confidence in himself. Also, after seeing what CJ Stroud did to the Bucs last week, the Titans will be eager to see what their own young rookie signal caller can to do.
Odell Beckham Jr. Over 2.5 Receptions -128
Odell caught 5 of his 7 targets last week, and it’s a great week to build off the momentum Jackson and him created last week. In a division rivalry game, in what should be low scoring, QBs want to go back to what they are comfortable with. Lamar spoke highly of Odell last week before their win, and their connection last week should carry over today.
Taylor Heinicke Over 222.5 Passing Yards -110
In his 1st start last week, Heinicke threw for 268 yards. Deshaun Watson came back from injury last week and almost hit this number in what was a blowout. The Cardinals have struggled defensively all year, and in a game that could feature more points than expected, Heinicke should have plenty of chances to throw down the field.
Jared Goff Over 275.5 Passing Yards -110
The Chargers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and the Lions are coming off their bye week and had extra time to prepare for this game. Goff and the Lions are playing with a ton of confidence, and the Chargers have been flying a lot recently, going back and forth from the East Coast. The Lions have all the talent needed for Goff to have a big game, and this is another game that could turn into a shootout.
Breece Hall Over 89.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -114
For the Jets to have any shot at a playoff berth this year, they have to win tonight in Las Vegas. For them to win tonight, they need to rely on the engine of their offense. Breece Hall is the best offensive weapon the Jets have, and he has game breaking speed. He has solid hands which will be important for an offensive line struggling to block for Zach Wilson. The Jets will surely rely on Hall early and often, and the Raiders have shown they can be had on the ground this year.