Picks For 11-5

Picks For 11-5

Picks For 11-5 150 150 The Ultimate Lineup

Xam’s Gem(s):

Chiefs -1.5 -105

The Chiefs unexpectedly lost to the Broncos last week, a team they hadn’t lost in their last 16 matchups beforehand. Expect Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to come into this game fully prepared to go against a Dolphins defense that can be exploited. The Dolphins have given up 31 or more points in 3 of their 4 road games this year.

Packers Money Line -180

The Rams are likely to be without QB Matthew Stafford today, leading to Brett Rypien to get the start in a hostile environment. Jordan Love hasn’t been particularly good this year, but the Packers should lean on their running game today. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are one of the better running back duos in the league, and they’ll need to pound the rock to keep Aaron Donald and company away from Love. The Rams will struggle for offense and the Packers should get back on track today.

Patriots Money Line -154

The Commanders just traded arguably their two best defensive players at the trade deadline, and coach Ron Rivera looks like he can be the next head coach fired. While the Patriots aren’t having a great year either, they’ve shown to be tough at Gillette Stadium. They beat the Bills at home and lost to the high-powered Eagles and Dolphins by one possession in their building, so they still have some semblance of a homefield advantage. Expect the defense to flummox Sam Howell early and often as they usually do to young QBs in their building. The Patriots should be able to win as long as they avoid turning the ball over.

Eagles Money Line -164

The Eagles have shown to be dominant at home with Jalen Hurts under center. They have lost 1 game at the Linc in the last 2 years with Hurts. The Cowboys are a good team, but they’ve shown to be a completely different team on the road, compared to the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys have road losses to the Cardinals and 49ers (in a blowout), and barely beat the Chargers on the road as well. It’s going to be a cold, physical type of game. That favors the Eagles and the home team.

Bengals -2.5 -110

Joe Burrow has gotten healthy and the Bengals have surged offensively over the last couple of weeks. Aside from a 3 game winning streak earlier in the year, the Bills have been hot and cold this year. They lost to the Jets and Patriots on the road, lost to Jacksonville in London, and nearly lost to the Giants at home led by Tyrod Taylor. Burrow is playing better than Josh Allen and the Bengals have more weapons. The Bengals also have a healthier defense.

Xam’s Prop(s):

Rashee Rice Over 3.5 Receptions -156

Rashee Rice has turned into a legitimate weapon for Patrick Mahomes. Rice has 4 or more catches in 5 of his last 6 games. Him and Mahomes are also becoming very efficient together. Rice has caught 17 of 20 passes thrown his way over the last 4 games. The Dolphins will be doing all they can to slow down Travis Kelce and the deep passing game, which should leave Rice room to work with underneath and in the quick passing game.

Derek Carr Over 250.5 Passing Yards -110

Carr has gone over 300 passing yards in each of his last 3 games, and today may be the weakest defense he’s played all year. The Bears are surrendering on average over 260 passing yards per game. Last week Justin Herbert threw for just under 300 yards against the Bears, and Carr should do the same. There’s some risk this game turns into a blowout and the Saints don’t throw as much in the 2nd half, but Carr has been finding his groove and should still do plenty of damage today.

Alvin Kamara Over 38.5 Receiving Yards -118

Kamara has been heavily featured in the passing game in the last 2 weeks, totaling 142 receiving yards on a whopping 16 receptions! He’s quickly earned the trust of QB Derek Carr, and that should continue today against a weak Bears defense. Kamara only needs one catch to hit this potentially, as he’s capable of taking one to the house regardless of where he is on the field.

D.J. Moore Under 5.5 Receptions -170

The Saints have played tremendous defense all year, and they’re even tougher to play against in the Superdome. They are giving up less than 200 passing yards per game and now face rookie Tyson Bagent. It may end up being a favorable game script for Bagent to throw for most of the 2nd half, but Marshon Lattimore and the Saints have been shutting down playmakers all year, and they haven’t faced a QB as inexperienced as Bagent this year.

Bijan Robinson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards -110

Robinson ran for about 5 yards a carry last week in a tough road loss, and now the Falcons have made a switch at quarterback. The Falcons probably don’t want Taylor Heinicke dropping back to pass too often. Expect Robinson to be featured early and often in this one.

DK Metcalf Over 4.5 Receptions -128

Metcalf has been targeted an incredible 23 times in his last 2 games, including 14 times in a close loss last week! QB Geno Smith is clearly doing whatever he can to target him early and often. The Seahawks will need to score in this game against Baltimore to have a chance, and Metcalf should be heavily involved once again.

Odell Beckham Jr Over 2.5 Receptions -125

Beckham has voiced frustration over his limited production recently, but this is a good spot for him to breakout. The Seahawks are traveling across the country which is always tough, and will be focused on stopping Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and rookie sensation Zay Flowers. Lamar Jackson has also spoken about wanting to get Odell more involved and on the scoreboard this week.

Jonathan Taylor Over 68.5 Rushing Yards -110

Taylor has gotten double digit carries and at least 75 yards on the ground in each of his last 2 games. He’s been slowly building up and back into form that made him one of the best running backs in the league a couple years ago. The Panthers are giving up almost 140 yards on the ground per game this year, and the Colts are going to want to pound the rock early and often on the road.

D’Andre Swift Over 56.5 Rushing Yards -110

Swift has emerged as the undisputed leader of Philadelphia’s backfield and has rewarded the Eagles for it. He has run for 57 or more yards in 5 games this year, and finished another at 56. The Cowboys will be focused on stopping the explosive passing attack for the Eagles, which should open some lanes in the running game.

Josh Jacobs Over 72.5 Rushing Yards -110

The Raiders just fired their head coach, offensive coordinator, and benched their QB. The last thing they want to do is put the ball in the hands of QB Aidan O’Connell. The Giants are giving up almost 130 rushing yards per game, and can be exploited. The Raiders are going to ride their workhorse running back as they chart a new path with a rookie head coach.