Picks For 9-24

Picks For 9-24

Picks For 9-24 150 150 The Ultimate Lineup

Xam’s Gem(s):

Browns Money Line -184

The Browns may have had a brutal loss last week and lost Nick Chubb for the season, but they still did a lot right last week. They had almost 450 yards of offense, and the defense was phenomenal on the road. Now they come home to face a weak Titans offense. Ryan Tannehill had only 6 TD passes on the road last year, and 23 of the 33 sacks he took came on the road. The Browns defense should have a good day, which means the offense can lean on the running game. It may be an ugly game, but the Browns have better weapons on both sides of the ball and are at home. They should get it done.

Lions Money Line -168

Simply put, the Lions are a different team at home. Their offense is better, and Desmond Ridder will now get his first road test of the season. He will be forced to throw in this game, and the Lions should be able to get some pressure on Ridder today. The Falcons were down 12 at home last week in the 4th quarter, before coming back to win. However, that’s just not a recipe for success.

Broncos +6 -114

Simply put, Denver’s season is on the line today. With a loss, they’ll be 0-3. Denver should come into this game completely focused. Meanwhile, star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is out for this game with a concussion. That should enable Denver to focus on Tyreek Hill. Denver will want to pound the rock early and often to shorten the game. Denver should be able to expolit an iffy secondary, and while they struggled in Week 1, the offense delivered 33 points last week against a quality opponent.

Cowboys/Cardinals Over 43.5 Points -105

Dallas’s offense is humming to start the year. They’ve scored 56 offensive points in 2 weeks, against teams with quality defenses. Now they face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Giants managed to put up 31 points against the Cardinals last week. The only question here is if the Cardinals can keep this game competitive enough to keep Dallas engaged. To that end, Dallas lost stud cornerback Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL this week, so there should be some room in the passing game for Josh Dobbs. They also scored 28 points last week, so they do have some offensive capabilities. Dallas has a strong defense, but Dallas’s offense should do most of the work today.

Steelers/Raiders Over 43 Points -110

Both defenses leave much to be desired here. The Steelers defense can force turnovers, but they’ve given up tons of yards and points this year. The Raiders just got smashed by the Bills last week, giving up 38 points. The Steelers offense has to be better and the good news is that they can’t be much worse, and they face a defense that gives up big plays. If the Steelers can figure out their offensive woes, we should see plenty of points tonight.

Xam’s Prop(s):

Justin Herbert Over 280.5 Passing Yards -110

Another year, another dreadful Vikings defense. Herbert threw for over 300 yards last week on the road, and this game is primed for a shootout. With Austin Ekeler out, that’ll be more of a reason for Herbert to drop back to pass more often. The Chargers are 0-2, and they’ll lean on their best players on offense to keep their season alive. That would be Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen.

Zach Wilson Under 28.5 Passing Attempts -122

The very last thing the Jets want to do in a game that should be rainy and gross against the Patriots is to have Wilson pass the ball too many times. In 2 games this year, he has attempted 21 and 27 passes, respectively. In Week 1, when it was a more competitive game, he had 21 passing attempts. Last year, he averaged under 27 passing attempts. Last year, he went under 28.5 passing attempts in 6 of his 9 starts. The Jets defense should be able to keep this close, as they did last year. They only gave up 25 offensive points to the Pats in 2 games last year. A close game will decentivize the Jets from having Wilson throw too much.

Breece Hall Over 46.5 Rushing Yards -110

The Jets won’t want to pass the ball much today, but they sure will want to pound the rock. Breece Hall only had 4 carries last week and was frustrated by his usage. The Patriots have also been gashed by the run this year. They’ve given up almost 250 yards rushing yards this year, and Raheem Mostert had 121 yards by himself last week. Hall should get plenty of opportunities today.

Justin Fields Over 176.5 Passing Yards -110

The Bears have had a brutal start to the season, but this line feels like there’s some bias built in here. Fields has 211 and 216 passing yards in 2 games this year, and while the pass defense for KC has improved, 177 total passing yards is not a big ask when you consider the likely negative game script the Bears will face today. Expect to see short passes to get Fields in a rhythm, and you only need to break a couple of them to generate big passing yard totals.

Dak Prescott Over 230.5 Passing Yards -110

Last week, even in a blowout at home, Prescott had 255 passing yards against an elite defense. Now, he faces a defense that has holes all over the place. The only question is if Dak will have to throw much in the 2nd half. However, Daniel Jones shredded Arizona last week for over 320 passing yards, and Dak has better weapons to throw to. If Arizona can keep Dallas engaged, Dak shouldn’t have any issues hitting this total.

Jaylen Warren Over 52.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -114

Reports are suggested Warren could be in for a bigger workload tonight, and Warren has elite skills catching passes out of the backfield. In a favorable game script last week, James Cook had a total of 159 yards last week. Javonte Williams also had more than 52.5 total yards against the Raiders. Warren should be able to get it done with an increased workload.