Xam’s Gem(s):
Phillies Money Line -178
The Phillies arguably have their best pitcher on the mound tonight, and Aaron Nola has under a 3.50 ERA at home this year. With a win tonight, the Phillies will lock up the top wildcard spot. They will definitely want to lock it up as quickly as possible so they can rest some key players and get their rotation set for the wildcard series. There’s no better pitcher for Philly to lock it up with than Nola. The Pirates are, simply put, a bad team. They don’t score a lot of runs either. Only the Giants have scored fewer runs than they have in the NL. Look for the Phillies to come out inspired and lock up the top wildcard spot tonight.
Tigers Money Line -166
Zack Greinke will probably end up in the Hall of Fame someday, but he’s been downright awful this year. He has a 5.37 ERA on the year, and on the road his ERA jumps to an astounding 7.31! In his last 15 games, he’s 0-9 with a 6.17 ERA. Kansas City has been hot recently, but Greinke is a big reason why they’ve given up the 2nd most runs in the AL. The Tigers have also been playing well recently, and want to end the season with some pride.
Blue Jays Money Line -166
The last time Kevin Gausman faced the Yankees, he dominated them at Yankee Stadium. Gausman has pitched to a 3.30 ERA this year at home. Michael King has been good for the Yankees this year, but this feels like a team that doesn’t have a lot of juice left in the tank after a wildly disappointing season. They also played yesterday at home to make up a game that was rained out, while Toronto was relaxing at home. The Blue Jays have the better pitcher, are at home, and have more to play for tonight. Toronto is only a game and half up on Houston for the final wildcard spot, and the Mariners are just 3 games back from Toronto. So with everything to play for, they should rely heavily on their ace and premium bullpen arms tonight.
Mets +1.5 -162
The Mets may be finishing up the most disappointing season in franchise history, but Joey Lucchesi has been very good since joining the rotation. He has a sparkling 2.88 ERA on the year, and it’s even lower on the road. Also, despite having a bad season overall, the Mets are 7-3 against the Marlins this year, and just last week won a series against the Marlins in Miami. The Mets also have scored more runs than Miami this year. Braxton Garrett has been good for the Marlins this year, but asking for a team to win by multiple runs on the road against a divisional opponent is a lot to ask for.
Padres Money Line -126
The Padres are on the brink of elimination for playoff contention, but coming into the day, they have the smallest room for error possible. That alone should be motivating. Seth Lugo has pitched to a 2.90 ERA over his last 7 starts, and it should be noted that not a single team in the NL has scored less runs than the Giants. Kyle Harrison has struggled in limited action this year, with a 4.85 ERA in under 30 innings of work. Having an inexperienced pitcher on the mound while not scoring a lot of runs isn’t typically a recipe for success. Look for San Diego to play with some pride tonight and get the job done.