As a sports bettor, it’s our job to analyze not only the better teams, and the better coaches, but to identify what the most important positions on the field are. This is particularly important for betting on Futures. When you bet on Futures, such as a team to win the Super Bowl or to win their division, what you’re really betting on is for star players to perform and stay healthy. The performance may end up being the easy part. The outlook of teams can and do change drastically when star players get hurt. Take the New York Jets, for example. With Aaron Rodgers, they may have been a trendy Super Bowl pick. When Rodgers got hurt and was lost for the season, the Jets were just hoping to compete for a playoff birth.
So, what’s the most important position in betting markets? It’s the quarterback for NFL and College Football teams, of course. No other player impacts the line and odds for both individual games and Futures odds. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that if you were to take a look at the leading Super Bowl odds, or Conference title odds in the NFL, the teams with the most likely odds to win it all are teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, Eagles, and the Cowboys. All of these teams are getting elite quarterback play this year. When Aaron Rodgers got hurt, or when Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars got hurt, even with Lawrence still playing, their odds went down.
When betting on Futures, you have to consider all aspects of the team. However, you also need to have confidence in the quarterback of that team. If you don’t, it may be wise to reconsider the bet you’re about to make. Always remember that if the QB of your bet doesn’t perform, or gets hurt, your bet can be in big, big trouble.