Xam’s Daily Gem:
Braves/Cubs Over 8.5 Runs -138 FanDuel
These teams combined for 11 runs yesterday, and they both feature high powered offenses that can score in droves. AJ Smith-Shaver is making his 2024 MLB debut today. In limited time in 2023, he had an unimpressive 4.26 ERA. However, in the minors this season, he was even worse, with an unsightly 6.10 ERA! The Cubs are averaging 4.4 runs per home game this year, and this is an opportunity to jump on a young pitcher on the road. In 2 games last year, Smith-Shawver pitched to a 7.94 road ERA! The Cubs counter with Ben Brown. He probably won’t last too long in this game given he’s gone 2 innings in each of his last 2 appearances and has gone 5 innings or more just one time this year. The Braves possess one of the best lineups in baseball and showed us that again last night, pounding out 9 runs in a dominant win. The Braves will find ways to score like they have all year. They’re averaging 4.67 runs per game this year and it actually goes up on the road this season, to 4.91 runs per game! The key to this Play is what the Cubs do at the plate, in all likelihood. They’ve been struggling to score recently, scoring just 2.8 runs per game over their last 10. However, earlier in the season they were mashing the ball. If they can get back to form, the Braves SHOULD be able to contribute the rest here, and giving us ANOTHER high scoring affair at Wrigley Field!
5/22 Premium PODs: 2-2 -0.71 Units
Mariners/Yankees Over 7.5 Runs Win +.54 Units
Blue Jays -1 Win +.75 Units
Braves/Cubs Under 9 Runs Loss -1 Unit
Dodgers -1 Loss -1 Unit