Xam’s Daily Gems:
Heat Money Line -118
The Heat have burned us before, but we have faith in them to get the job done tonight. The Heat have way too much talent to be on a 7 game losing streak. They added Terry Rozier to give their offense a little bit of a boost, and he had his best game in a while against the Suns, scoring 21 points. If Rozier can continue being the added punch for the offense, the Heat should be able to get this corrected. The issue hasn’t been the defense. They’re giving up less than 112 points per game on average. The Kings will present a challenge, as they’re averaging 118 points per game. However, their defense has been suspect all year. They’re giving up 117 points per game. The key will be Miami’s offense tonight. Bam Adebayo should be able to contain Domantas Sabonis, and the rest of the team should be able to contain point guard De’Aaron Fox. Can the Heat score, though? They’ll likely need more than their season average of 110 points. Expect the veterans of the team like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to step up with the team needing a win in the worst way.
Spurs +5 -108
Despite their record, the Spurs have been playing more inspired basketball recently. Their offense has still been good and their defense has improved marginally. There is some concern tonight as this is their 3rd game in 4 nights, but they’re in the middle of a homestand so there hasn’t been any travel involved. This is Orlando’s 3rd game in 4 nights as well, but they’ve had some travel involved. Orlando has been a pleasant surprise on the back of their defense this year. They’re only scoring 111 points per game this year. The Spurs haven’t been great defensively this year, as they are giving up over 121 points per game this year. However, they’ve been better recently. In their last 3 games, they’re giving up just 110 points per game. If they can continue this stretch of better defensive play, they should be able to score enough to cover the spread and even challenge for the win. Orlando has been horrible on the road this year, going just 9-16 away from the Kia Center.
Thunder Money Line -138
This line has been moving since it was announced that Nikola Jokic is out for this game with a back injury. The line has moved to as much as -5/-6 in favor of the Thunder. The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league this year and come into this game a 1/2 game back of the Nuggets for the 2 seed and just 1 game back of the Timberwolves for the top seed in the West. Understandably, with the line movement, it may not be advantageous to play the money line at such a juiced price. However, given that the Thunder are healthy for this game and the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road anyways, we do think the Thunder covers the spread in this game as well. The Thunder have been dominant offensively all year, scoring just under 121 points per game this season. It shouldn’t be a lot to ask for with Jokic out for OKC to play quality defense tonight and contain guys like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., assuming they play.
Suns Money Line -154
The Suns have been on a mission lately. They are starting to make their move in the Western Conference. They’re finally healthy and have won 8 of their last 10 games. This is on the back of an offensive attack that feels unstoppable right now. There is some concern about it being their 3rd game in 4 nights, but the Nets really don’t have the defense or the offense to stay in this game. They’re giving up 115 points per game and only scoring 114 points per game. They do have a slight rest advantage, but there’s been rampant trade speculation as the team has fallen out of contention. The Suns have their eyes set on competing for a championship, and in order to get there and overcome there slow start to the season, they need to win games like this tonight. They are 1 game back of the 5 seed in the West, and have all the momentum coming into this game. If they can contain guys like Mikal Bridges and Cam Thomas, their dynamic offense should be able to get the job done tonight.