Xam’s Daily Gems:
Ravens -2.5 -146
The Ravens control their own destiny for the top seed in the AFC, and a win today against Miami will go a long way to securing it for them. They’ve been particularly tough at home this year, and the Dolphins are coming off an emotional win against the Cowboys last week. The Dolphins are also missing running back Raheem Mostert in this game. He’s been a huge part of their offense, with 21 touchdowns on the year. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have also been banged up the last few weeks. The Ravens have overcome injuries all year and have continued to step up all year. Lamar Jackson is playing like an MVP, and has been on a roll lately. The Ravens are the more battle tested team, have the better QB, and are at home today.
Patriots/Bills Over 40.5 Points -104
The Bills and Patriots scored 54 points in the last meeting between these two teams, and the Bills have been rolling offensively lately. The Bills have scored 22 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. They have scored 31 or more in 3 of those games. They have been better at home, but their defense has had holes all year. The Patriots have also shown some life in the last few weeks offensively, scoring 17 or more points in each of their last 3 games. The Bills have historically fared well against Bill Belichick since Jose Allen took over. This game will be about what the Patriots can do offensively to keep this game close. The Bills can still win the AFC East, so the Bills will have all the motivation they need to score early and often. If the Patriots can do anything on offense, the Bills should do the rest.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -120
18 of Allen’s 27 passing touchdowns have come at home this season. The Bills have looked more comfortable at home all season, and it’s been that way even recently too. The key here for this play will be the Patriots keeping it close to keep Allen and the offense motivated to continue airing it out. Allen has also dominated the Patriots since entering the league, throwing multiple TD passes in 6 games against them. Allen has been playing great football lately and with everything to play for, he should be ready to go today.
Beras -2.5 -120
Believe it or not, the Bears have been playing motivated football recently. They are 4-3 in their last 7 games and have impressive double digit home victories against the Lions and Cardinals. Justin Fields is playing better and getting the ball to his playmakers. They have been playing quality defense as well, holding opponents to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. They are playing inspired football at a time where we haven’t seen them do that in recent years. The Falcons have been much more up and down recently. They’ve had QB issues all year, and despite an impressive win last week, have been underwhelming this year, and especially so on the road. The Falcons are 2-5 on the road this season, and have scored 16 or less points in 5 of those games. Look for the Bears to continue their late season momentum in front of their home crowd.
Cooper Kupp Over 5.5 Receptions -130
The Rams control their own destiny for a playoff spot, something few would’ve predicted coming into the year. In order for the Rams to finish the job and secure a spot, they’ll need a win today on the road. Getting a win will require them to utilize their top wideout. Cooper Kupp is one of the best wide receivers in the league when he’s healthy, and Matthew Stafford has been targeting Kupp more than ever recently. He has no less than 8 targets and 6 receptions in each of the last 4 games, and in 2 of those games he has 10 or more targets. The Rams have had extra rest to prepare for this game, so we can be sure head coach Sean McVay has drawn up some creative plays for his top weapon. Puka Nacua is banged up coming into this game, meaning Kupp may get even more targets. Add in a questionable Giants secondary, and it’s shaping up to be a big game for Kupp.
Cardinals/Eagles Over 48 Points -112
The Eagles have one of the most potent offenses in the league. They have scored 28 or more points in 7 games this season. Their defense has also taken a step backwards this season, and Kyler Murray has played well since returning from a torn ACL last year. The Cardinals have scored 24 or more points in 3 games since Kyler has returned. They’ve shown they can score against quality defenses too in Pittsburgh and San Francisco. If Kyler can get the offense going, the Eagles should be able to do the rest. The Eagles have plenty to play for, as they still have the chance to be the top seed in the NFC.
Buccaneers -2.5 -110
The Bucs will win the NFC South and the 4th seed in the NFC with a win today against the division rival Saints. The Bucs have won 4 straight and have gotten hot at the right time. The Saints haven’t been a good team on the road this year, going 3-5 away from home. They have scored 22 or less points in 6 of those games. The Bucs have been rolling offensively, and they already beat the Saints earlier in the year. Derek Carr has been banged up for much of the year, and the Bucs love to bring pressure under head coach Todd Bowles. The Saints have also regressed defensively. They have given up 27 or more points in 5 of their last 9 games.
Broncos -2.5 -148
The Broncos have gone through some turmoil this week and have benched QB Russell Wilson. There’s been a lot of confusion and frustration with Denver this year, but it’s nothing head coach Sean Payton hasn’t seen before. The Chargers have also been a beacon of drama this year. They have fired their head coach and despite playing admirably last week against Buffalo, seem like they just want to play out the strings of a lost season. Believe it or not, the Broncos still have an outside chance at a wildcard spot. The Broncos will be without Courtland Sutton today, but this feels like a game where the Broncos try to pound the rock all game, to ease new QB Jarrett Stidham into his first start of the year. Payton wanted Stidham as a backup, which means he believes in Stidham’s ability to run his offense. Denver’s defense should be able to contain a Chargers offense without Keenan Allen again, so Denver’s offense probably won’t have to do too much to get the win. Expect Payton to be buttoned up as this week as he looks to show everyone Russell Wilson was the problem and that he has what it takes to turn Denver around.
Jordan Love Over 234.5 Passing Yards -113
Love’s confidence seems to grow with each passing week. Love has gone over this number in 5 of his last 7 games. Head coach Matt LaFleur has also shown increasing confidence in his young QB as the season has progressed. The Vikings are giving up just under 250 passing yards per game this season. This is a bit of an early legacy game for Jordan Love. The loser of this game is essentially done for the season, while the winner will have a good chance to make the playoffs. Love has been one of the main reasons for the offense picking up steam in recent weeks, and there’s no reason to think an offensive minded coach like LaFleur will want to change what has worked with the offense in recent weeks.