Xam’s Daily Gems:
Spurs +10.5 -110
The Spurs are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, but they should still be pretty rested for this game, as they previously hadn’t played since February 3rd. The big problem for the Spurs this year has been the defense, although that has been improving slightly in recent games. The offense, led by Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell, has also improved a little bit recently. 10.5 is simply put, a lot for this Magic team. They’re only averaging 111 points per game this season. They’re even worse in their last 10 games, scoring just 108 points per game. The Spurs should be able to do something on offense. The key will be if they can keep it close and not give up a ton of points. If they can contain Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, they should be able to score enough to keep this game within single digits.
Mavericks Money Line -164
The Mavericks are finally starting to put some things together, and looking like a team that can make some noise in the Western Conference. They have won two straight and have been playing better defense as well. Meanwhile for the Knicks, it looks like injuries to key players is catching up to them again. Being without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby has made their offense overly reliant on Jalen Brunson. If Jalen Brunson doesn’t have a great night offensively, the Knicks struggle. The Mavericks have all the offensive talent they need to go on a run. Luka Doncic may get some MVP votes when all is said and done, and Kyrie Irving is a very capable Robin to his Batman. Offense has never been the issue this season for Dallas. They are scoring and giving up 118 points per game this season. If Dallas can play any sort of defense tonight, they should be able to score enough to get the job done.
Nets +6 -110
The Cavaliers have won 7 straight and may be the hottest team in the league right now. However, this may be a prime letdown spot. This is the 2nd night of a back-to-back on the road, their 3rd game in 4 nights, and 4th game since February 3rd. That is a lot of action in a short span of time! This is the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Nets as well, but they were off yesterday and at least haven’t been on the road as much as the Cavs have been recently. Simply put, the Nets will have to play some defense tonight if they want to keep this game close. They’re giving up 115 points per game this season. Even with their hot streak, the Cavaliers are scoring less than 115 points per game this season. If they can contain guys like Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, the Nets should be able to do enough offensively to keep this one close.
Bucks -1 -110
Simply put, the Bucks have been dominant at home this year. They are 21-5 when they play in Fiserv Forum this season. They’re also arguably the best offensive unit in the league, averaging a whopping 123 points per game this season. For all of Minnesota’s success this season, they’re only 16-11 on the road. Minnesota has been led by great defensive play, as they are only giving up 107 points per game this season. However, for this game, that kind of effort seems unlikely. The Bucks are scratching and clawing to hang onto the 3 seed, and they need to get back on track after losing 2 straight. It’s a big game for Doc Rivers too, who’s 1-4 in his first 5 games as head coach of the Bucks. Expect a hard fought game tonight. If the Bucks can play any semblance of defense and contain Anthony Edwards, the Bucks should get the win in front of the home crowd tonight.
Nuggets Money Line -166
Both the Lakers and Nuggets have been flexing recently. The Lakers have done it in surprising fashion, winning road games against the Celtics and Knicks to help propel them. The Nuggets are winners of 7 of their last 10 games and have done so largely on the back of their defense. Their defense has been good all year, as they’re only giving up 110 points per game this season. The Lakers will need to score quite a bit to stay in this one. The Nuggets are coming into this game fully rested, having only played one game since February 2nd and being off since February 4th. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have been the lifeblood for this team. If they both don’t have productive games tonight, it’s hard to see the Lakers winning, and may not even be that competitive. Both teams have had multiple days off, but the Nuggets do have slightly more rest coming into this one. If the Nuggets can contain LeBron or Anthony Davis, they should be able to do enough offensively to win. The Lakers will likely need to score a bunch of points in this one, and it remains to be seen if they have the horses to keep up with the reigning champions.