Xam’s Daily Gems:
Avalanche 60 Minute Money Line -165 FanDuel
(For this bet to win, the Avalanche must win in regulation. Bet loses even if the Avalanche win in OT/Shootout.)
The Penguins have been terrible on the road, having lost 7 straight games away from home and have scored just 19 goals in this stretch. The Penguins have struggled to score all year, in fact. No team has scored fewer goals than the Penguins in the Eastern Conference, at just 201 goals on the year. In this game, on the road against the Avs, that’s not going to work. The Avs have been on fire, winning 8 straight games and scoring 43 goals in this stretch! Between Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen, and Cale Makar, the Avs just have too much firepower in this game. The Avs are 27-6 in front of the home crowd and average a staggering 4.33 goals per game at Ball Arena! If the Avs can play just a little defense, they shouldn’t have an issue winning this game in regulation. The Avs are clearly the better team and have more to play for in this matchup.
76ers/Clippers Over 214.5 Points -110 FanDuel
The Clippers have raced out to the 4th seed in the Western Conference thanks in part to a dominant offense. They’re averaging 116 points per game this year and with a Big 3 of Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Paul George can score with the best of them on any given night. Clippers games have gone over this number in 8 of their last 10 games. They should be well rested coming into this game, as they have only played one game since the 20th. The key in this game is what the 76ers can produce offensively. It’s been a struggle for them since Joel Embiid got hurt. They’re averaging just 95 points per game in their last 8 games, and 2 of those games saw them score less than 80! They are 3-7 in their last 10 games and just aren’t playing with a ton of confidence right now. However, they can’t be any worse offensively. Eventually, guys like Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Tobias Harris have to play better and start putting the ball in the hoop. If the 76ers can do anything offensively, the Clippers should be able to do the rest. The 76ers have too much talent to be this bad, and they’re a prideful group. There’s some blowout potential here, but if the 76ers can score 100 points or a little bit more, the Clippers should be able to do the rest for us.
Bucks Money Line -134 FanDuel
The Bucks have been nothing short of great at home, going 28-7 at Fiserv Forum this year. A big reason for that is the 123 points they’re averaging at home this year. They still have a lot to play for as well, as they still have work to do to wrap up the 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks should also be plenty rested for this game, as they haven’t played since the 21st and played just one game since the 20th. The Thunder have obviously had a great year, but they’re only 21-13 on the road and are giving up almost 115 points per game on the road. The Thunder are tied for the top seed in the Western Conference thanks to a dominant offense. They’re averaging nearly 121 points per game and nearly 119 points on the road. The Bucks will need to play defense to win this game. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and the rest of the offense for the Bucks will lead the way. It should be a marquee game, but in this case, the veteran team who’s been there before and at home has the edge.
Lakers Money Line -146 FanDuel
For all their faults this year, the Lakers have been really good at home this year, going 26-12 in front of the home crowd. They’ve been playing great offensively recently, scoring 119 points per game in the last 10 games. That’s rough news for the Pacers, who have been horrific on defense this year. They are giving up 120 points per game on the year, though they’ve been better recently. This will be Indiana’s 4th game in 6 nights and their third straight road game, so they may be a little tired coming into this game. The Lakers, meanwhile, have played just one game since the 18th. They have a big rest advantage coming into this game. The Lakers also need every win they can get. They’re only up 1 1/2 games up on the Warriors for the 10th seed in the West and 3 games up on the Rockets who are the 11th seed! LeBron James and Anthony Davis know this game is extremely important for them. If the Lakers can contain the playmakers for the Pacers, they should be able to score enough on a poor defensive team who likely will come into this game tired.
Cade Cunningham Over 1.5 Made 3s -140 FanDuel
Cade hasn’t been efficient lately, but he’s shot it no less than 15 times in each of the last 9 games. In 6 of those games, he’s taken 20 or more shots! The Pistons have a ton of injuries coming into this game, so the Pistons may rely on Cunningham even more than usual today. The Pelicans are playing their 3rd game in 4 days, so they may be tired as well. Cade hasn’t been solid shooting from deep lately, but he’s due for a correction. In 7 games this month, he’s shot at least 6 3-pointers, showing his willingness to continue firing. Given the injuries to the guards for Detroit, and the rest edge for Detroit here, Cade may be in store for a big game. Backing someone who will always shoot is a good thing! With a little luck, Cade will get hot early and make it easy on us!
CJ McCollum Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -122 FanDuel
McCollum dominated in the first game for the Pelicans without Brandon Ingram. Now, he faces off against one of the worst defenses in the league. In the first matchup earlier this year, McCollum cleared this number on his points alone, scoring 33 points in a win. The biggest issue for this Play may just be the blowout potential. The Pistons have been terrible all year and are dealing with key injuries across the board. However, the Pelicans are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, which may enable the Pistons to keep this close for a while. CJ has been very efficient in his last 10 games, hitting over 47% of his shots in that timespan. He should be heavily involved yet again. The Pelicans still have a shot at the 4 seed in the Western Conference, and still have work to do to ensure they don’t fall into the Play-In Tournament, so this game is extremely important for them. Look for CJ to take advantage of a terrible defense. If the Pistons can keep it close, CJ should be able to impact the game enough to clear this number.
James Harden Over 25.5 Points + Assists -110 DraftKings
Harden has been fantastic dishing it to teammates in recent games, tallying 10 or more assists in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s averaging over 17 points per game at home this year, which is good news when you add in his recent assisting prowess. Harden has also been a lot more efficient shooting at home, shooting 45% from the floor and shooting 3% better from deep. If he can keep that efficiency going, he should be able to clear this and help get his team a win. Harden is averaging just 13.6 points per game over his last 6, so he’s due for a better scoring line. If the 76ers keep this one close, Harden should be at the focal point of the offense for most of the day.
Tyrese Maxey Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -108 FanDuel
As the top scoring option and best overall player for the 76ers right now, Maxey has been giving the 76ers everything he has recently. He’s proven himself to be an elite scorer, as he has 27 or more points in 4 of his last 5 games and scoring 30 or more in 4 of his 8 games this month. He’s also shown he’s a solid passer, having 7 or more assists in 2 of his last 3 games. Obviously, he needs his teammates to hit shots, which has been hard to come by recently. For the 76ers to win this game as a double digit underdog on the road, Maxey will need to deliver from opening tip-off. His numbers on the road are actually better than his home stats, across the board. His points are up as are his assists and rebounds. His minutes are also up and yet he’s more efficient from the floor and from deep. He’s cleared this number in 3 of his last 5 games, and would’ve done it last game but only had 5 rebounds and assists combined. That likely won’t happen again. If he can continue his proficient shooting, he should be able to do enough on the glass and passing wise to clear this number to try and help his team pull off the upset.
Stephen Curry Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -105 DraftKings
Curry is averaging nearly 36 PRAs on the road this year, giving us value on this line. In his last game against Minnesota, Curry cleared this number easily just on the number of points he scored! Every game is so vital for the Warriors, as they are the 10th seed in the Western Conference and are up only 1 1/2 games on the Rockets for the last playoff spot. Curry has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. He knows how important every single game is and this is a game that may feature more points than people expect. The Warriors like moving fast and getting it going in transition, so Curry will have plenty of chances to impact this game. Curry’s shooting numbers are down in his last 10 games and he’s still gone over this number in 6 of those games. If he can get back to his usual shooting form, he shouldn’t have an issue clearing this number again in a game the Warriors desperately need to win.