Xam’s Daily Gems:
Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Money Line -120 FanDuel
Southpaw Jordan Montgomery makes his 2nd start after throwing a quality start and getting the win in his first career start as a Diamondback. Meanwhile, St. Louis’s stater, Kyle Gibson, has been awful. He comes into this start with an ERA over 5, and at Busch Stadium that number is up to 6! Arizona has the PERFECT lineup to take advantage. They’re leading the sport in runs scored and have a +39 run differential, which is one of the best in the sport. However, they’re somehow under .500! If Jordan Montgomery can build on his last start, the Diamondbacks shouldn’t have issues here. They’ll be able to score off Kyle Gibson just like everyone else has!
Guardians Money Line -142 FanDuel
Carlos Carrasco gets the start for the Guardians and he has put together a nice start to his season. He has a 3.44 ERA coming into this start and he only gave up 1 earned run in his only home start so far. The Red Sox turn to Cooper Criswell, though this will possibly a bullpen game to some degree. Criswell has just 6.1 innings pitched in 2 games. The Red Sox are dealing with a ton of injuries already, including to major parts of the lineup, including Rafael Devers. They just aren’t playing with a lot of confidence, scoring a lot of runs, or playing well defensively. Needless to say, that’s a bad combination! The Guardians, meanwhile, have been SMOKING HOT! They’ve won 5 straight and 8 of their last 10. They’ve scored the most runs in the American League and given up the fewest! They also should have all of their premium bullpen arms available as needed.
Yankees -1 -164 DraftKings
Clarke Schmidt makes his 5th start of the year, and boy has he been impressive. He comes into this start with a 3.15 ERA, and an ERA of 2.79 at Yankee Stadium! The Athletics counter with Joe Boyle, who’s been BRUTAL so far this year. He comes int this start with a woeful 7.23 ERA. In his last start which came on the road, he gave up 7 runs! The key for this game will be what the Yankees can do offensively. They have only scored in 1 inning in this entire series! However, they’re just too good offensively to keep struggling, and especially so at home. The Yankees pitch well, field well, and SHOULD have their elite bullpen arms available. If they can hit in this one, they should be able to win their 2nd straight game against Oakland!
Heat/Celtics Over 200 Points -145 DraftKings
These teams went for a combined 208 total points in Game 1, despite the Heat scoring just 59 points through the first 3 quarters of the game. The Celtics did the bulk of the heavy lifting, as expected, and frankly, they’ll have to do so again. Fortunately, the Celtics know how to score at home. This season, they averaged a whopping 123 points per game at TD Garden! This Play will depend ENTIRELY on whether or not the Heat can keep the Celtics interested here. We all know how important Jimmy Butler is to this team, and the lopsided spread reflects that this game will likely be another blowout. After all, it was 91-59 after the 3rd quarter. If the Heat can do anything offensively and show just a little bit of fight, the Celtics should do the rest themselves. If Jayson Tatum and his friends have to play the entire game and play hard, with intensity, we should get this number to go Over the Total yet again!
Twins -1 -139 DraftKings
In case anyone forgot…the White Sox are terrible. They were up 5-2 in the 8th inning yesterday and lost. They’re 3-20, don’t score runs, and don’t really do anything well. Southpaw Garrett Crochet makes his next start for the White Sox. He’s had a rough time of it, giving up 12 runs in his last 2 starts, lasting just 7.2 innings. Joe Ryan makes his next start for the Twins. He comes into this game with a respectable 3.57 ERA, though he was roughed up a bit in his last start. Not only do the Twins have the starting pitching edge here, they have the bullpen edge as well! The White Sox used their best relievers to try and lock down the win yesterday, while the Twins didn’t use any of their premium bullpen arms. They should be FULLY rested for this one! The Twins have all the momentum coming into this one, while it just feels like the White Sox have no sense of hope or direction to turn this thing around.
Blue Jays Money Line -110 FanDuel
Yariel Rodriguez makes his 3rd career start for the Blue Jays, and it’s easy to see he has electric stuff. Despite pitching just 7.2 innings, he has 13 strikeouts and an impressive 2.35 ERA! The key will be for him to stay in the game and give the Blue Jays some length. They have a solid bullpen who should all be well rested for this game! Righty Alec Marsh makes his 5th start for the Royals. He’s gotten off to a good start this year, coming into the game with a 3.22 ERA. However, he was awful in 2023, both on the road and at home. In fact, his home ERA was 6.59! There should be some negative regression here, and the Blue Jays have the lineup to take advantage! Their premium bullpen arms should be well rested for this game and ready to go as well. That can’t be overstated in this matchup.
Rangers Money Line -122 DraftKings
Jon Gray makes his 6th start of the year for the Rangers, and he’s been pretty impressive. He comes into this start with a 3.15 ERA, and his best work has come on the road this season! Bryce Miller makes his next start for the Mariners, and he’s been extremely impressive. All he’s done is pitch to a 1.85 ERA with a 0.57 WHIP and 24 strikeouts! He’s given up just 2 runs in his last 3 starts. However, this is a different test for the youngster. The Rangers have PLENTY of veteran hitters and they’ll have a more rested bullpen! If Gray can build off his recent success and shut down the Mariners lineup, the Rangers SHOULD be able to put some runs together and come away with the win against their division rival!
Pelicans/Thunder Over 207.5 Points -150 DraftKings
These teams slogged it out in Game 1, but both of these teams have offenses that can and will score! Despite scoring only 94 points in Game 1, the Thunder averaged 120 PPG during the regular season! The Pelicans just played an emotional Game 1 and played 2 Play-In games, so there certainly can be some defensive lapses from them in this game. However, on their side, they still boast solid offensive talent. Even without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum lead an offense that knows how to score. The Pelicans averaged 115 points per game on the road in 8 games without Zion Williamson. If they can even get close to that average, this game should absolutely FLY over the Total!
Jayson Tatum Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -122 FanDuel
Tatum went for 43 and a triple double in Game 1, and he was absolutely DOMINANT. However, there’s reason to think he can be even better in Game 2. He shots just 7-18 from the floor, less than 39%, and went just 1-8 from beyond-the-arc! Needless to say, that probably won’t happen again at TD Garden. On the season at home, he hit nearly 47% of his shots and nearly 37% of his 3s. Frankly, the biggest obstacle to hitting this may be the state of the game. Of course, if it’s another blowout, the Joe Mazzulla won’t feel the need to play Tatum late. He did play 41 minutes in the Game 1 blowout, and he should see similar minutes if he’s needed.
Jaylen Brown Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -115 FanDuel
Brown went for 28 PRAs in Game 1 despite scoring just 17 points. At home this season, he averaged 23. In Game 2, as they did in Game 1, the Heat will focus heavily on superstar Jayson Tatum. Brown will have the opportunity to knock down PLENTY of looks in this game. Jaylen Brown only took 12 shots in Game 1, which is well below his regular season average. Again, it’ll likely depend on how much scoring and relative output is needed from Boston’s superstars. Brown averaged 32.4 PRAs per game at home this season and averaged nearly 31 PRAs against the Heat this season. If needed, he will ABSOLUTELY take care of business in Game 2!
Kristaps Porzingis Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -108 DraftKings
Porzingis landed on 23 in Game 1 despite getting only 4 rebounds in the game, his lowest rebound total in a month! He averaged over 7 per game and over 7 against the Heat in the regular season, so he should return to form in that department. Importantly, he played 34 minutes in Game 1, an uptick of over 4 minutes on his regular season average and an uptick of nearly 7 minutes against the Heat! Part of this is likely due to head coach Joe Mazzulla trying to counteract Bam Adebayo, but we will certainly take it! If he can get those rebound numbers up and contribute just a little bit in the assist department, he should be able to score enough to cover the rest!
Al Horford Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds -102 FanDuel
Al Horford was a BEAST in Game 1, scoring 10 points and adding 7 rebounds on 26 minutes of play. That is an uptick of just 22 minutes in his last 10 games, so he’s clearly rested and trusted by his coaching staff. He averaged 15 points + rebounds per game this season. Including Game 1, he’s hit this total in 8 of his last 9 games! Talk about a model of consistency! He hit 52.5% of his shots and over 43% of his shots from beyond-the-arc at TD Garden this year. With Boston having so many weapons, Horford should once again have some rom to operate against an undermanned Heat team.