Xam’s Daily Gems:
Tigers Money Line -118 (Game 1)
Jack Flaherty is on the mound for the Tigers. The Tigers face Kyle Gibson, who has been hit or miss all season long. Flaherty has thrown a quality start in 2 of his last 3 games. Gibson has given up 6 earned runs in 2 road starts, including 4 in his last road start.
The Tigers have the better bullpen and are fully rested, so they should ALL be rested today for Game 1 as needed! If the Tigers can score some runs, they’ll win Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Marlins Money Line -142 FanDuel
It’s a battle between the two worst teams in the National League. The Rockies and Marlins are a combined 13-45! Sixto Sanchez is being stretched out as a starter and showed decent stuff against the Braves. In 5 innings at home, his ERA sits at a respectable 3.60. Ryan Feltner has been brutal this year, but especially so on the road. He has an ugly 6.46 road ERA. He’s struggled on the road his whole career, with a 5.45 career road ERA. The Marlins are 2-15 at home while the Rockies are 2-11 on the road. Something has to change here, but the Marlins were a playoff team last year, no matter how unlikely. They have clearly regressed, but they aren’t this bad. The key is what they can do offensively. If they can do anything at the plate tonight, they SHOULD win the opening game of this series.
Yankees Money Line -122 FanDuel
For his career, Dean Kremer has an ERA over 5 against the Yankees. That’s bad news considering the Yankees scored 30 runs in a 2 game span in Milwaukee. Southpaw Nestor Cortes has a career 1.99 ERA against the Orioles. He’s gone 7 innings in back-to-back starts, giving up just 3 runs over that stretch. The Yankees will NEED to score runs to win today, but they have the offense to do it, even though Baltimore is really solid at home. All of New York’s premium relief pitchers should be available as well. If Cortes can continue his run of solid pitching, the Yankees will even up this series!
Bruins Money Line -166 DraftKings
The Bruins look to end the series in front of the home crowd at TD Garden. The Bruins have played really well in this series and now superstar Auston Matthews is battling an illness. The Bruins have all the momentum right now and all three of their wins in this series have been by 2 goals or more. Ironically, the Bruins at home had the exact same record as the Maple Leafs did on the road, at 24-11-6. The Bruins will need to be locked in defensively, as the Leafs are averaging 3.59 goals per game. Of course, much of this is thanks to a healthy Auston Matthews. The Bruins have shown an ability to score, so the onus will come down on the defense to slow down the powerful Leafs offense. If they can, they SHOULD be able to wrap up this series!
Knicks Money Line -164 FanDuel
The Knicks have shown a ton of heart in this series and look to close out the 76ers at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks won a bare-knuckle brawl in Game 4 thanks to Jalen Brunson and fantastic defense. Superstar Center Joel Embiid is still dealing with the effects of a knee injury and Bell’s Palsy. The 76ers have not shown much fight in this series and don’t seem to be playing with a ton of confidence. The Knicks NEED guys to step up with Jalen Brunson. He’s been the best player in this series, but he needs help from guys like Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Brunson is going to do what he’s done in this series and all year: score a ton of points and impact the game. If he can get help from his friends, the Knicks SHOULD be able to score enough to get the job done and send the Knicks faithful home happy!
Hurricanes 60 Minute Money Line -150 FanDuel
(For this bet to win, the Hurricanes must win in regulation. Bet loses even if the Hurricanes win in OT/Shootout.)
The Hurricanes dominated the Islanders in the first 2 games of this series at PNC Arena, and now look to set up a clash with the New York Rangers in round 2 of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Hurricanes averaged 3.32 goals per game at home during the regular season, while the Islanders averaged just 2.93 goals per game on the road. The Hurricanes dominated teams in their building, going 27-10-4. The Islanders were barely a .500 road team with s 18-17-6 mark. Leftwinger Matt Martin is out for Game 5 with a lower body injury, and the Islanders will need to play in ways that haven’t shown they can to extend this series. Look for the Hurricanes to be aggressive early offensively and end this series to set up a clash with the top overall seed in the playoffs.
Twins Money Line -166 FanDuel
The Twins trot out Simeon Woods-Richardson as they look to capture the series against the White Sox. Woods-Richardson has a 2.45 ERA and threw 5 strong innings against the White Sox at home. In his only road start this year, he threw 6 innings of 1 run ball against the Tigers. Michael Soroka, meanwhile, has had a much tougher time of it for the White Sox. He has a 6.83 ERA on the year and has given up 4 runs or more in 4 of his 6 starts this year. The Twins should be able to knock him around and give their young righty a lead to work with. The Twins will should have their premium bullpen arms available as needed late in the game. If they can score tonight they should run their winning streak to 9 games.
Cavaliers Money Line -185 DraftKings
Games 3 and 4 were ugly for the Cavaliers, but they dominated Games 1 and 2 at home and now face as close to a must win as a home favorite has. They NEED a win to at least guarantee themselves a Game 7 in their own building. The Cavs were particularly dominant defensively in the first 2 games, holding the Magic to 83 and 86 points, respectively. That’s where it has to start for them tonight. They have to contain Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, something they didn’t do AT ALL in Games 3 and 4. On offense, Donovan Mitchell needs to be the guy that takes over. He’s going to do whatever it takes to put the Cavs in a position to win tonight. He scored 54 points in the two wins for the Cavs but just 31 their two losses. He needs to step up, as do role players Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley. The Cavs have all the talent they need to win this game and this series. If they can get back to their tight defense and timely offense, they’ll regain control of this series tonight.
Rangers Money Line -156 FanDuel
The Rangers turn to veteran righty Jon Gray, who’s really turned it on recently. He’s given up just 2 runs in his last 3 outings and is in a groove right now, coming into this start with a 2.93 ERA. The Rangers are also playing this game with a rest advantage, as they had yesterday off while the Nationals finished their series against the Marlins. After dominating that series and sweeping it, the Nationals are due for a letdown, and especially so against far stiffer competition. Southpaw MacKenzie Gore goes for the Nationals. He’s had a good start the year, but he struggled at times on the road in 2023. It’s a tough ask for him tonight against a lineup with quite a few solid right-handed bats and tough lefties as well. The Rangers SHOULD have their full compliment of bullpen arms as needed, and the Nationals may not be quite ready to face a team like the Rangers.
Astros Money Line -148 FanDuel
The Astros come into tonight as the 2nd worst team in the American League, as the only team worse are the lowly White Sox! There’s no way they’re actually this bad after winning the AL West last year and making it to the ALCS. Starting pitching has been brutal for the Astros so far, and Hunter Brown hasn’t helped matters with his grotesque 9.68 ERA. Facing a tough Guardians lineup when you’re struggling is certainly not ideal. Carlos Carrasco goes for the Guardians, who got smacked around in his last start. He was terrible in 2023 in all aspects, and he’s not getting any younger. The Astros are too good to keep struggling offensively, and with Rafael Montero, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader in the bullpen, they SHOULD figure things out there as well. The key is the starting pitching. If Brown can get himself back on track, the Astros SHOULD be able to use their fully rested bullpen and lineup to get a win against a surging opponent.
Pirates Money Line -142 FanDuel
Pirates ace Mitch Keller goes tonight. He’s given up 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts, but his last road start was extremely impressive. He threw 7 innings of 2 run ball on the road in Philly to get the win. He signed a major extension in the offseason, so the Pirates clearly view him as part of their longterm plans. Southpaw Alex Wood goes for the A’s, and he’s been nothing short of terrible this year, with a 6.59 ERA this year. At home he’ been WORSE, with a gross 9.24 ERA. The Pirates SHOULD be able to hit him and their premium relief pitchers should all be available tonight. If Keller can get himself back on track, the Pirates should even up this series.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -122 FanDuel
Hartenstein found himself in foul trouble in Game 4, but still managed to land on 14 total. He only had 4 rebounds, which is nowhere close to his rebound potential and what he did during the regular season. Hartenstein has earned the full trust of Tom Thibodeau, and has shown himself to be a solid passer for a center. The key for him is avoiding fouls against Joel Embiid. It’s a lot easier said than done of course, but he’s a key cog in slowing the 2022-2023 MVP down. He tallied 15 rebounds in the first 2 games of this series at Madison Square Garden. He SHOULD get back to those numbers tonight and if he does, he should clear this number.
Darius Garland Over 20.5 Points + Assists -148 FanDuel
Garland has been a disappointment overall in this series, as he’s averaging just 12 points per game. His assist numbers are down from what he did in the regular season as well. However, tonight is the perfect night to flip the script. He averaged nearly 27 points and 8 assists against the Magic in the regular season in 3 games, and at home this season he averaged 25.5 points + assists. His shooting in this series has left much to be desired. He’s better than the 19 total points he tallied in the last 2 games in Orlando. If he can get his shots to fall, he SHOULD clear this number! That is the key for this Play. He tallied 20 P+A’s in Game 4 and shot the ball decently, so even just a marginal improvement should be all we need!
Donovan Mitchell Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -180 FanDuel
The Cavs need their superstar to step up with the season hanging in the balance. He cleared this number EASILY in both home games in this series, averaged 38.9 PRAs against the Magic in 3 games during the regular season, and overall averaged 41.2 regular season PRAs. Simply put, his team and his city NEEDS him tonight. It wouldn’t be surprising to see coach J.B. Bickerstaff to give Mitchell extra minutes tonight as the Cavs look to avoid losing their 3rd straight in this series.
Pascal Siakam Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -166 FanDuel
Siakam has DOMINATED this series, averaing 41.1 PRAs. In both road games against the Bucks, he cleared this number with his point total ALONE! Expect the best player on the Pacers to be featured in a close out game against the Bucks. He’s going to attack early and often, and that’s the key. The Bucks are just undermanned and don’t have the size to consistently stop an elite scorer like Pascal. If Pascal can get back to his normal scoring output, he SHOULD clear this number once again!
Angels Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -150 FanDuel
The Angels have been scoring runs lately, and are led by a resurgence in former MVP Mike Trout. They’re averaging 4.31 runs per game at home and scored 6 runs last night in their first game against the Phillies. Spencer Turnbull has gotten off to a nice start for the Phillies, but he was terrible last year in limited work as he dealt with injuries. He had an unsightly 8.44 road ERA last year and for his career has a 4.49 road ERA. The Angels are getting production from several hitters in the lineup and they’ll definitely need that tonight against a hot starting pitcher and quality bullpen.