Xam’s Daily Gems:
Cardinals -1 -131 DraftKings
Lance Lynn makes his next start for the Cardinals, and he’s been awesome for the Cardinals this year. He has a 2.64 ERA on the year and now faces one of the worst lineups in the game. The White Sox counter with Erick Fedde. He’s pitched well this year too, coming in with a 2.60 ERA. However, he has a 3.38 ERA on the road and his good start this year belies his career stats. He has a 5.21 ERA for his career, so there SHOULD be some regression coming for Fedde. The White Sox got shutout yesterday and continue to have one of the worst, if not THE worst, lineup in baseball. They’re scoring just 2.4 runs per game on the road. The Cardinals SHOULD be able to score some runs and give Lynn room to work. The Cardinals should still have all of their premium bullpen arms available as well! As long as they can score some runs, Lynn and the bullpen should take care of the rest!
Pirates -1 -157 DraftKings
Jared Jones has been awesome this year for the Pirates, pitching to a 3.18 ERA which ticks down to 2.25 at home! He has back-to-back quality starts at home, with both of them coming against quality opponents in Milwaukee and the Orioles. Southpaw Austin Gomber goes for the Rockies, and he’s struggled this year. He has a 4.50 ERA on the year and that goes up to an unsightly 6.30 ERA on the road. He’s struggled on the road for his whole career, with a 5.00 ERA. The Pirates will have their premium bullpen arms available and they’re facing one of the weakest lineups in baseball. If Jones can throw up some zeroes and give the offense time to work. the Pirates shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES winning this game and evening up this series!
Timberwolves/Nuggets Over 208.5 Points -110 FanDuel
These teams played 4 times this year and they went Over this number in 3 of those games, all of which came in March and April. Both teams are well rested after quickly dispatching their 1st round opponents and have had time to rest. The Nuggets proved themselves to be a DOMINANT offensive team at home this year. They averaged 118.5 PPG at Ball Arena this year! Minnesota played solid defense all year, but this is an entirely different beast. The key will be the young Timberwolves not be overwhelmed by the moment. The Nuggets will find a way to score against a solid defensive team. If Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert can deliver offensively, the Nuggets SHOULD care for the rest and hit this Over!
Astros Money Line -146 FanDuel
The Astros are FINALLY picking it up and stringing wins together. They’ve won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5. Southpaw Framber Valdez goes tonight for the Astros. He’s been quite good this year for the Astros, pitching to a 2.60 ERA and 2.19 ERA at home. In his last home start, he dominated the Blue Jays to the tune of 7.2 innings of shutout baseball! He’s pitched well against the Mariners throughout his career, with a 3.00 ERA against them. The Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert, who’s been similarly good this season. The Astros are finally starting to get some real production from the lineup, and that SHOULD continue tonight! The Astros should have all of their premium bullpen arms available. If Valdez can continue his run of good pitching, the Astros should be able to keep their momentum and keep racking up wins!
Bruins Money Line -130 DraftKings
There’s A LOT of pressure on the Bruins tonight. They were up 3-1 in this series and weren’t facing Auston Matthews, yet here we are. The Bruins were a GREAT team all year at TD Garden, going 24-11-6 in front of the home crowd. They averaged 3.32 goals per game at home, and they’ll certainly need that offensive output tonight. They’ve scored just 2 goals in the last 2 games, and that’s not going to be enough tonight. Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman has been fantastic in this series, and especially so in the last 2. He has a 1.60 goals against per game average and during the regular season, had a 2.53 goals against per game average. He will NEED to bring that effort and consistency tonight. The Bruins aren’t playing with a lot of confidence offensively right now, and the last thing they need is to go down early. If the Bruins get some time to get going, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk SHOULD be able to lead the Bruins offensively and do enough to get the job done.
Dodgers -1 -141 DraftKings
The Dodgers took Game 1 in extra innings last night in this heavyweight bout against Atlanta. Now they send their best healthy pitcher, Tyler Glasnow, to the mound. He has a sterling 2.72 ERA and has given up just 1 earned run in his last 2 starts, spanning 14 innings! The Braves counter with righty Bryce Elder, who’s been solid in his first 2 starts, but this is an entirely different challenge for him. Last year, Elder had over a 4 ERA on the road. The Dodgers have a tremendous lineup and should be able to score runs tonight. They have the most runs scored in all of baseball and have won 8 of their last 10 games! The Dodgers SHOULD have all of their premium bullpen arms available as well. If Glasnow and the bullpen can throw up some zeroes against a tough opponent, the lineup SHOULD care for the rest!
Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 Ks -180 DraftKings
Gausman has 5 or more strikeouts in 2 of his last 3 starts. He’s gotten off to a slow start in the strikeout department this year, averaging less than 4 per start! However, he had a whopping 237 strikeouts last year, equating to 7.64 strikeouts per start! in 26 of his 31 starts last year, he had 5 or more strikeouts. Gausman is also finally starting to get more efficient and pitch longer in games. He has back-to-back quality starts against the Royals and Dodgers, giving up just 1 run in 13.2 innings pitched. Gausman threw 93 pitches in his last start, so he SHOULD be good for 100 or so today. If Gausman can keep his pitch count under control, he SHOULD be able to rack up the strikeouts today!
Christian Scott Over 4.5 Ks -146 FanDuel
Christian Scott makes his major league debut tonight for the Mets. He’s the top pitching prospect in the organization and was cracking Top 100 prospect lists for all of MLB occasionally this year. He averaged 7.2 strikeouts per start this year in the minor leagues. Scott only threw 71 pitches in his last start, perhaps in anticipation of being called up. The Mets haven’t gotten much length from their starting pitchers this year and it continued yesterday, with Jose Quintana lasting just 2.2 innings. Combine that with an 11-inning game played the day before that and some bullpen injuries, and Scott may have a chance to go as deep as he can in his debut. The Rays are also in the bottom 10 in strikeouts per game. They’re averaging 9 strikeouts per game coming into tonight’s game. The key, of course, is Scott controlling his nerves and locating his pitches. If he does that, he will be in position to impress in his debut and clear this number!
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 Assists -118 FanDuel
Edwards averaged 6.3 assists per game in the first round of sweep of the Suns, clearing this number in 3 of the 4 games. In the game he didn’t go Over this number, he landed on exactly 5. The Nuggets are a solid defensive team and surely have been studying ways to slow Edwards down offensively. He averaged a whopping 31 points during the first round series and scored 33 or more 3 times! The Nuggets won’t let him do that to them, so Edwards will need to pass the ball and rely on his teammates to score. He’s a solid passer and this game may feature more scoring than expected, which will give AntMan more passng attempts. He will surely look for his big men, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, to try and make some easy shots. Edwards averaged over 5 assists per game on the road this year and is playing more minutes in the playoffs. He averaged 39 minutes per game in the first round and played 41 or more minutes in Games 3 and 4. This is a SIGNIFICANT increase as he averaged JUST 35 MPG during the regular season. If his teammates can knock down some shots, he shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES clearing this number yet again!
Michael Porter Jr. Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds -115 FanDuel
Michael Porter Jr. was nothing short of fantastic against the Lakers. He averaged 31.2 PRs in 5 games against the Lakers and went over this line in all 5 games! In 2 of those games, he went over this line with his point total ALONE! He averaged over 39 MPG in the series and should see a similar workload tonight as he’s well rested. The Nuggets will need his offensive output tonight against a solid defensive team. He hit 55% of his shots in the first round and hit 50% of his shots at home during the regular season. In the 3 games he played 39 or more minutes in this year, he cleared this number each time. The Timberwolves will try and focus their efforts on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, so MPJ SHOULD have room to operate. He’s always active on the glass and that SHOULD continue tonight!
Mike Conley Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists -122 FanDuel
Mike Conley cleared this number in 3 of the 5 games he played in the first round, and hit double digits in all of those games. He played on average 3 more minutes per game in the first round than he did in the regular season. For his career, he averages 6.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game in the playoffs. He’s a veteran who’s been here before and won’t get overwhelmed by the moment. He’s an aggressive player who likes to attack the glass and will continue doing so tonight! He has seen an increase in both his assist and rebound numbers in the postseason and it SHOULD continue tonight!
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -160 FanDuel
Towns SHREDDED the Suns in the first round, easily clearing this number in 3 of the 4 games. In those 3 games, he totaled no less than 30 PRAs! He made over 53% of his shots in the first round and saw his 3-point shooting percentage go up too! The Timberwolves will NEED his offensive production if they’re going to pull off the upset in this series. If KAT can keep up his impressive shooting numbers, he shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES clearing this and helping Minnesota try to pull off the upset! In the only game he played against Denver this year, he totaled 33 PRAs and on the road this year, he averaged 34.8 PRAs per game!
Nikola Jokic Over 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -162 FanDuel
Jokic averaged 54.2 PRAs in the first round against the Lakers, and nearly AVERAGED a triple double for the series! He was a monster all series. He cleared this number in 4 of the 5 games. The one game he didn’t he landed on exactly 48. He averaged over 40 minutes per game, up about 5 minutes on his regular season minutes average. He SHOULD get a similar workload tonight, as he is well rested for this matchup. Jokic strafed the Timberwolves this year, averaging 49.4 PRAs in 4 games. He also averaged just 4.3 assists per game against them, which should increase tonight. Jokic averaged 9.5 assists per game at home this year. Those numbers are also based on him playing just 35 minutes per game. Those numbers should SKYROCKET tonight with his increased workload!
Jamal Murray Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -166 FanDuel
Jamal Murray went from averaging 31.5 MPG in the regular season for the Nuggets to a whopping 39.8 MPG in their first round series against the Lakers! He cleared this number in 4 of their 5 games in the first round, and did so despite shooting poorly throughout the series. He only hit 40% of his shots and hit less than 30% of his shots from beyond-the-arc! Those numbers are bound to go up and if they do, he SHOULD clear this easily with the extra workload he’s getting. He’s an elite passer and the Nuggets LOVE scoring at home. He even averaged 4.6 rebounds per game in the first round, which is more than acceptable for a point guard. He’s shown a willingness to get his hands dirty and get involved. He will be well rested for this game and ready to go! He has the ability to impact the game in a VARIETY of ways and shouldn’t have any issues doing so tonight!