Xam’s Daily Gems:
Tigers Money Line -155 DraftKings
Fading Patrick Corbin on the road is NEVER a bad idea! He has a 6.15 ERA on the year, and he’s been bad on the road as well! The Tigers go with Casey Mize, who has a respectable 3.58 at Comerica Park this year. He’s struggled in his last 7 starts, but he’s too good to continue pitching to a 6.06 ERA. The Nationals have also used A TON of bullpen arms in this series, and with the series already won, may be willing to use lesser bullpen arms today. For the Tigers, they just can’t get swept in this series. They’ll be ready to use all of their best relievers as needed! The Tigers have the better pitcher, are at home, and have the more rested bullpen ready for this one.
Cubs First 5 Innings Money Line -120 DraftKings
Justin Steele is somehow 0-3 on the year despite having a 3.65 ERA and given up just 2 runs in his last 3 starts! He hurt his hamstring early in the year that caused him to miss over a month. However, it hasn’t slowed him down at all! He’s given up 1 total run in his last 2 road starts. Taj Bradley goes for the Rays, and it’s been a different story for him. He has a 5.17 ERA coming into today. He got off to a late start this year thanks to a right pectoral strain. The Cubs have put up just 34 runs in their last 10 games, but this is the spot for the offense to get right. If the offense can get going against an iffy starter, Steele SHOULD be able to shut down Tampa Bay’s offense!
Mets Money Line -190 FanDuel
The Mets will send arguably their best pitcher to the mound to try and win the series tonight against the Marlins. Luis Severino has a 3.25 ERA in his first season with the Mets and that drops to a superb 2.61 at Citi Field. The offense is also FINALLY starting to get it going. They’ve been poor offensively for much of the year but they dropped 10 runs yesterday. Today, they face Roddery Munoz, who comes into today with a 5.95 ERA in 4 starts. In his last 2 starts, covering just 8.2 innings, he’s given up 10 runs. In 2 road starts he has a 7.45 ERA. Due to the blowout nature of yesterday’s game, the Mets SHOULD have all of their premium relief pitchers available. If the Mets can scratch out some runs, they SHOULD be able to contain a weak Marlins lineup and take the series.
Twins -1 -189 DraftKings
Ace Joe Ryan goes for the Twins facing one of the worst lineups in baseball. The Athletics have mustered just 20 runs over their last 10 games! They have the 3rd fewest runs scored in baseball, have lost 5 straight games, and 8 of their last 10 games. The Twins won in a blowout yesterday, so they SHOULD have all of their top bullpen arms available as well. Facing Luis Medina and his 5.23 ERA through 2 starts shouldn’t be an issue. He had a 6.02 ERA in 11 road games last year (8 starts). The Twins have the better pitcher, better lineup, and better team.
Diamondbacks -1 -135 DraftKings
Brandon Pfaadt goes for the DBacks in the first game of this series. He’s been a much better pitcher at home than he has on the road. This is an important game for the Diamondbacks because losing a home series to the Los Angeles Angels would be embarrassing. Griffin Canning goes for the Angels in the rubber game and he’s been bad on the road, posting a 5.06 ERA this year. The Diamondbacks have one of the best lineups in baseball and should show it in this one. With a fully rested bullpen, they SHOULD be ready to go in a game the reigning NL Champions REALLY need!
Mariners First 5 Innings Money Line -150 DraftKings
Keep fading the White Sox. The Mariners have won 4 straight games and are going for the sweep of the White Sox tonight. To do it, they send their ace, Luis Castillo, to the mound. Castillo has a solid 3.35 ERA on the year which drops to 2.95 at T-Mobile Park. The White Sox counter with southpaw Garrett Crochet. He’s been solid this year with a 3.33 ERA and a superb 1.10 ERA in his last 7 starts. However, his road ERA on the year is 4.80. If the Mariners can scratch out a couple runs early, Castillo SHOULD be able to shut down the worst offense in baseball.
Rangers/Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs -110 DraftKings
These are two teams that can score in droves. Only the Yankees have scored more runs than the Dodgers on the year, and the Rangers are a solid offensive team as well. They’re scoring over 4.3 runs per game on the year and it doesn’t really feel like they’re clicking offensively. Rangers starter Michael Lorenzen is having a solid season, but last year he had a 4.70 road ERA, and for his career has a 4.03 ERA. We SHOULD see some negative regression soon. Michael Grove goes for the Dodgers. He has a 4.72 ERA on the year, but this will probably just be a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Trying to piece together a bullpen game against this team is risky! Expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in baseball.
Patrick Corbin Over 16.5 Outs Recorded -125 DraftKings
Patrick Corbin may not be having an effective season, but he’s managed to get outs this year. Corbin has cleared this number in 4 of his last 5 starts, and was 1 out away from doing it in his last start. The Nationals have used A TON of bullpen arms in their series against the Tigers, and will need Corbin to eat innings today. Keeping his pitch count under control will be key, but he only threw 77 pitches in his last start, so he SHOULD be good to go to eat innings today!