Xam’s Daily Gems:
Braves -1 -205 DraftKings
Morton has been worse at home this year than on the road, a trend that SHOULD reverse itself as the season progresses. He’s a veteran pitcher who is too good to keep carrying around a 4.29 ERA. Luis Medina makes his first start of the season for the Athletics today, and he brings a 5.42 ERA into this game. In 2023, he had an ERA over 6 on the road! This is a Braves team that can score plenty of runs, and after losing yesterday, they’ll be highly motivated to end this series with a win. If Morton can return to form and keep the A’s in check, the Braves shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES taking the rubber game of this series!
Blue Jays Money Line -172 FanDuel
The Blue Jays go for the series win with veteran Chris Bassitt on the mound. Bassitt has been rounding into form, coming into today’s start with 2 consecutive scoreless outings. He’s been better at home than on the road, pitching to a 3.93 ERA at Rogers Centre this season. Righty Quinn Priester goes for the Pirates today. He has a 4.33 ERA, but inexplicably, that’s mostly due to a 7.00 ERA at home! He’s been good on the road this year. However, for his career, he has an ERA above 5 on the road, so we should start seeing some regression to the mean. The Blue Jays SHOULD have all of their premium bullpen arms available today. If the lineup can get it going early, they should be able to take the series against an inferior team.
Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Ks -135 DraftKings
Bello has cleared this number in each of his last 2 starts and in 4 of his last 6 starts. In fact, he’s had no less than 6 strikeouts in each of those games! Bello has been much better at Fenway Park this season than he’s been on the road, and the Tigers don’t usually offer much resistance at the plate. Bello is averaging 5.2 innings pitched this season, which shows his ability to pitch deep into games consistently. The Tigers are ALSO in the bottom 10 in terms of strikeouts per game. They are averaging 9.38 strikeouts per game on the road this year and over 10 per game in their last 3 games. If Bello can keep his pitch count low and attack the strike zone, he shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES clearing this number yet AGAIN for his 3rd straight start and 5th time in his last 7 chances!
Jose Quintana Over 3.5 Ks -154 FanDuel
Jose Quintana has been MUCH sharper at home this year than on the road. His numbers are better pretty much across the board. He’s cleared this number in 2 of his last 3 starts, and he’s gone 6 innings in each of his last 2 starts. The Mets have also used A TON of bullpen arms recently, and really don’t trust anyone back there at this point. Quintana hasn’t hit 90 pitches in any of his last 5 starts, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pushed today. The Mets haven’t had a pitcher go 6 innings since last Tuesday, so they could REALLY use Quintana to be sharp and efficient today. He’s historically been good at home as a Met and has cleared this number in 6 of his 11 home starts as a member of the Mets.
Marlins Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -120 DraftKings
The Marlins average 4.16 runs per game at home this season, and today they face a pitcher who’s been highly inconsistent this season. Southpaw Andrew Heaney has a 4.47 ERA this season, and in day games this year, he has a gross 6.23 ERA! The Marlins have ALSO started picking it up at home, averaging 4.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. That includes 8 runs they tallied in the first game of this series. Time will tell if the Marlins can keep this offensive streak going, but they’re in a good spot to keep doing so today.
Giants Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -104 FanDuel
Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes has been nothing short of dreadful on the road this season, coming into today with a woeful 6.16 road ERA. The Yankees needed 4 different relievers yesterday and have already won this series, so they MAY be willing to try and give some guys rest if the Giants get out to an early lead. The Giants have been raking at home recently as well, averaging 4.9 runs per game at home in their last 10 games. If they can bring the intensity, they SHOULD be able to manufacture some runs today.