Xam’s Daily Gems:
Phillies Money Line -155 DraftKings
Despite dealing with a rash of injuries, the Phillies come into play after the All-Star Break with the best record in baseball. They have an elite lineup, but their pitching has been really good too. Enter Aaron Nola. He has 3.38 ERA on the year and has proven himself to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s been rounding into form lately, with quality starts in each of his last 5 starts and in 9 of his last 10 starts. The Pirates counter with southpaw Martin Perez, who comes into today with an unsightly 5.15 ERA. As bad as that is, he’s actually been A LOT worse in his last 7 starts, with a grotesque 7.56 ERA! The Phillies have the better team across the board in this game, and they’re obviously well rested coming out of the All-Star Break. If Nola can continue his recent form, the Phillies shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES taking the first game of this series!
Yankees -1 -125 DraftKings
Gerrit Cole has been rounding into form since returning from the IL with a right elbow injury. Simply put, when he’s on, he’s the best pitcher in baseball. He’s given up 1 run in 2 of his last 4 starts, both of which came on the road. The Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball and have their sights set on a World Series run. The Rays, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction. They will reportedly begin to listen to offers on some of their star players like Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes. Their starter tonight, Zach Eflin, has been TERRIBLE on the road, coming into tonight’s start with a 5.37 ERA away from Tropicana Field. The Rays have shown to be a weak offensive team as well, averaging less than 4 runs per game this season. If the Yankees can get their bats going, they SHOULD be able to win the first game of this divisional rivalry!
Guardians Money Line -144 FanDuel
At 58-37, the Guardians just might be the surprise of baseball as we head into the 2nd half of the year. They have the best record in the American League and have been led by their pitching for most of the year. Tanner Bibee has been a big reason for their success. He has a 3.77 ERA on the year and has shown himself to be a reliable member of the starting rotation for the Guardians. The Padres counter with Matt Waldron, who on the surface has been fine, but has pitched to over a 4 ERA in 3 individual months this season. The Guardians have also been an EXCELLENT home team this year. They’re 30-11 at Progressive Field this year, while the Padres have been an up and down team all year. If the Guardians can contain a quality Padres lineup, they should be able to do enough with the bats to get the job done tonight.
Royals -1 -161 DraftKings
In case you haven’t heard, the White Sox are a bad baseball team. Like, really bad. Like, on pace to be one of the worst teams in history, bad. They’re a woeful 27-71 and 10-37 on the road, the single worst road record in the sport. They’ve given up the most runs in the American League and have the fewest runs scored in baseball. Talk about a losing combination! Chris Flexen is making the start for the White Sox. His 4.82 ERA certainly leaves a lot to be desired. The Royals counter with righty Michael Wacha, who’s really turned it on his last 7 starts, posting an impressive 2.72 ERA. At 52-45 and fighting for a wildcard spot, the Royals NEED every game they can get against the White Sox. They’re obviously fully rested after the All-Star Break and need to get back on track after losing their last 2 games. They’re 31-18 at home this year. If Wacha can continue his strong performance recently and hold an anemic offense in check, the Royals SHOULD be able to produce enough to win the first game of this series in a game they REALLY need.
Dodgers -1 +101 DraftKings
Despite their record setting offseason, injuries have slowed down the Dodgers a little bit. They’re “only” 15 games over .500 and don’t have the best record in the National League. However, this shouldn’t get twisted. They’re a great team. They have the 2nd most runs scored in the NL and 3rd most in the sport. Led by Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers strike fear into the heart of every pitcher they face. Gavin Stone takes his turn tonight for the Dodgers. With other starting pitchers suffering injuries, Stone has picked up the slack and pitched well, to a 3.26 ERA coming into tonight. He’s also pitched MUCH better at night than he has during the day this year, for what that’s worth. The Red Sox counter with Nick Pivetta, who’s had an up and down season to the say the least. His ERA is roughly double at home than it is on the road, but he has a 5.48 ERA in night games coming into tonight. There should be some regression to the mean coming for Pivetta’s stats on the road. The Dodgers have the lineup to get it done and if they can get the pitching, they shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES taking care of the Red Sox tonight.
Red Sox/Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs -112 FanDuel
It’s well established that the Dodgers know how to score a boatload of runs, but the Red Sox are no slouches at the plate. They’re averaging about 4.70 runs per game on the year and that number ticks up to 5 over their last 30 games! Their production doesn’t dip on the road either, as they are averaging just over 5 runs per game away from Fenway Park this season. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has been bad in his last 2 starts, posting a ghastly 9.39 ERA in July. The Red Sox will likely be the key to this Play, as the Dodgers SHOULD be able to do what they normally do and score some runs. If Boston can hold up their end of the bargain, we just might have a good ole fashioned slugfest in LA!
Justin Steele Over 4.5 Ks -155 DraftKings
Steele has gone over this line in 10 of his last 11 starts and came within 1 strikeout in his last start of doing it again. He hasn’t pitched in 8 days, so he SHOULD be more than rested here. In 6 of these starts, he tallied 7 or more strikeouts. Steele is averaging 6.1 innings per start this year, showing he’s ALSO capable of pitching deep into games. In home starts this year he is averaging about 5.6 Ks per start. The Diamondbacks strikeout almost 9 times per start on the road as well. The Cubs will have EVERY INCENTIVE to give Steele extra outs and pitches, to avoid using their bullpen for as long as possible. If Steele can keep his pitch count in check, he shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES tallying up the strikeouts once again!
Patrick Corbin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded -105 DraftKings
Corbin may not be an effective pitcher anymore, but he’s more of a wagon than he gets credit for. In 8 home starts this year, he’s gone over this line in 6 of them, and in the other 2 starts he went 5 innings on the dot. In 8 starts this year he’s managed to go 6 innings or more, showing that he can still pitch deep into games even when he gives up runs. He last pitched on the 10th and only threw 73 pitches, so he SHOULD be more than rested enough to get PLENTY of outs tonight. The Reds are right around league average in pitches per plate appearance, at 3.87 per At-Bat. If Corbin can keep his pitch count under control (always a big if), he SHOULD get the Reds to swing and put the ball in play. It should also be noted Corbin has been a little better of late, pitching to a 4.90 ERA over his last 15 starts.
Matt Waldron Over 3.5 Ks -128 DraftKings
Waldron has gone over this line in 3 of his last 5 starts and 9 of his last 12 starts overall. In 7 of those starts, he tallied 6 or more strikeouts! He has also averaged over 4.8 strikeouts per start on the road this season. While the Guardians don’t strikeout a lot, they don’t see many pitches per plate appearance either, at just 3.81 per batter. This SHOULD enable Waldron to be efficient and attack Cleveland hitters. Given that San Diego is in the top half of bullpen ERA this year, they PROBABLY won’t move too fast to get into their bullpen tonight. Waldron hasn’t pitched in a week AND threw just 80 pitches in that start, so he should have PLENTY in the tank tonight. He’s actually thrown 80 or less pitches in 2 of his last 3 starts but has thrown 104 or more pitches in 3 of his last 5 starts, so he SHOULD be able to get closer to the top of his pitch count, so long as he’s effective enough to warrant staying in the game.