Xam’s Daily Gems:
Rays Money Line -126 FanDuel 5 Units
They let us down yesterday, but we’re RIGHT BACK on the wagon with Tampa Bay today! Zack Littell hasn’t had a good stretch of it lately, posting a 6.34 ERA over his last 7 starts. However, he’s a different pitcher at Tropicana Field compared to when he isn’t. He has a respectable 3.36 ERA at home this year, 3 of his last 4 starts at home have resulted in a quality start, and in 10 home starts this season, he’s given up more than 3 earned runs just ONCE! He’s given up 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 6 starts, but in those other 2 starts, both on the road, he gave up a whopping 12 runs in just 9.2 innings pitched. Southpaw Andrew Abbott takes his turn for the Reds. He’s been shaky in his last 2 starts, surrendering 13 hits and 5 walks in just 10 innings of work. The question is how the Rays respond to adversity after trading superstar Randy Arozarena and another tough loss yesterday. Despite using their top line relievers yesterday, they SHOULD be available again today. If the Reds can get their offense going, they just might be able to get a win and even up this series!
Braves/Mets Over 8 Runs -104 FanDuel 5 Units
These are two teams trending in opposite directions, but both teams boast offensive firepower. They combined for 12 runs yesterday and BOTH teams are going with starters that are prone to giving up runs. Spencer Schwellenbach has had an up and down year, but his worst outings come on the road and during the day. On the road he has a 5.16 ERA which SHOOTS UP to a disgusting 8.04 ERA! Facing off against a hot offense in the Mets is bad news. The Mets are averaging 5.1 runs per game over their last 10 games. The Mets counter with Tylor Megill, who has ALSO left A LOT to be desired. His 5.08 ERA does tick down to 3.46 at Citi Field, but he has historically struggled against the Braves, pitching to a 4.79 career ERA over 9 games against them. It’s also WELL KNOWN that the Mets have a terrible bullpen AND they just lost one of their best relievers to injury. This game has ALL the hallmarks of a SLUGFEST! Don’t be surprised to see the big bats on both sides shine BRIGHT!
Phillies Money Line -145 BetMGM 5 Units
The Phillies suffered a tough loss in the first game of this battle between heavyweights, but they’re in a good position to get a win tonight. Righty Tyler Phillips is coming off his BEST start of the year, throwing 6 scoreless innings on the road against the Pirates. Despite losing at home yesterday, the Phillies are STILL the best home team in baseball, coming into play with a 37-17 record at Citizens Bank Park. That’s bad news for Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco, who just isn’t having a great time of it. His 5.32 ERA certainly leaves A LOT to be desired. The Guardians have ALSO used A LOT of their bullpen recently. Superstar closer Emmanuel Clase is likely unavailable tonight after having pitched 4 times since July 21st! Prime reliever Hunter Gaddis has pitched 3 times in the last 4 days, so he’s also probably unavailable. Having to use lesser quality relievers when ALSO having a backend starter on the mound is a BAD combo when facing the Phillies in their own stadium. Look for Phillies manager Rob Thomson to utilize his bullpen to the FULLEST to try and even up this series.
Giants -1 -167 DraftKings 5 Units
KEEP FADING THE ROCKIES! The Rockies are putting together one of the WORST seasons in baseball this year and are a WOEFUL 14-37 on the road! Ryan Feltner has definitely contributed to these issues, as he’s 1-10 with a 5.19 ERA on the year. He’s also struggled against the Giants throughout his career, going 0-3 with a 5.09 ERA entering play today. The Giants counter with southpaw Blake Snell, who got off to a VERY slow start for the Giants this year but has gradually been better as he’s gotten more starts under his belt. He’s given up just 2 earned runs over his last 3 starts, a stretch spanning 18 innings! He’s also coming off his 2 longest outings of the year, going 7 innings and 6 innings over his last 2 starts. The Giants still have PLENTY of work to do to keep their faint playoff hopes alive, so EVERY GAME is extremely important. Giants’ manager Bob Melvin knows this and he also knows his team needs EVERY win they can get against the lowly Rockies, so everyone out of the bullpen SHOULD be available tonight to help the Giants get the series win!
Brewers Money Line -155 BetMGM 5 Units
The Brewers can’t afford to lose home games to the lowly Marlins. After no-showing last night, they NEED newly acquired starter Aaron Civale to step up. He’s been A LOT better pitching at home than on the road this year, and simply put, he needs to deliver that today. The Brewers are without a big offensive weapon without star outfielder Christian Yelich. However, they SHOULD be able to hit rookie Max Meyer. He’s pitched well to start his career, but this is a different type of game that he isn’t used to pitching in. The Marlins have given up the 2nd MOST runs in the National League, and the Brewers are the 5th HIGHEST scoring team in the NL. This is a BIG game for the Brewers, so expect manager Pat Murphy to use his bullpen in such a way that puts his team in the BEST position to get the win.
Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 Ks -160 BetMGM 5 Units
Imanaga has shown he has the stuff to strike batters out. Over the course of his 18 starts this year, he is AVERAGING 6 strikeouts per start! He’s coming off a whopping 10 strikeouts in his last start and has 6 or more strikeouts in 3 of his last 4 starts. The Royals don’t strikeout a lot, but Imanaga presents a unique challenge. He ALSO only threw 90 pitches in his last start and has an extra day of rest, so he may be able to throw even MORE pitches today. Shota has EARNED the trust of the coaching staff, so he should have a little more rope than usual!
Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Ks -136 FanDuel 5 Units
While Crawford hasn’t gone over this line in 3 straight games, he went over this number in 6 outings prior to that, and in those 6 games, he tallied 7 or more strikeouts in 4 of those games! He’s also gotten the Yankees to strikeout A LOT when he’s faced them this year, striking out 13 Yankees batters in 2 starts, with 9 of those strikeouts coming at home against them last month. Crawford has also been pitching deep into games. He has gone AT LEAST 6 innings in 8 of his last 9 starts. Crawford is averaging 5.8 Ks per home start this year. The Red Sox have ALSO used A TON of bullpen arms recently. They could use Crawford to go as deep as he possibly can, which means Crawford SHOULD have more time to strikeout Yankees hitters!
Kutter Crawford Over 16.5 Outs Recorded -130 DraftKings 5 Units
Before going just 5 innings in his last start on the road against the Dodgers, Crawford went 6 innings or more in 8 straight starts! That includes 2 starts against the Yankees, and in his last start against them, on the road, he went 7 innings and DOMINATED them! The Red Sox are coming off a stretch where they have used A LOT of bullpen arms, and Crawford has been pitching with A LOT of confidence lately. If he can keep his pitch count under control, he SHOULD be able to work through what’s been a weak Yankees lineup for a LONG TIME!