Xam’s Daily Gems:
Phillies First 5 Innings Money Line -142 FanDuel 5 Units
Southpaw Cristopher Sanchez goes for the Phillies as they look to avoid a sweep at home! He’s been solid all season for the Phillies but has STEPPED UP in a MAJOR WAY at Citizens Bank Park this year. He has a SPARKLING 1.75 home ERA and the Phillies are going to need that today against a potent Yankees lineup. The Yankees counter with their own southpaw in Nestor Cortes. However, unlike with Sanchez, Cortes is trending in the opposite direction. He has an ugly 5.40 ERA in his last 7 games, including giving up 15 earned runs over his last 3 starts! Simply put, he’s been AWFUL on the road this season, coming into today with a 6.18 road ERA! He’s also been a lot worse pitching during the day than at night. It’s all set up for the Phillies to take advantage. They have the lineup to do damage and they NEED a win! Look for Philadelphia to come out aggressive against a struggling starter. If Sanchez can contain a powerful Yankees lineup, the Phillies SHOULD get it done in the first 5 innings of this game!
Twins Money Line -112 FanDuel 5 Units
The Twins are sending their ace to the mound to try and avoid being swept away by the Mets. Pablo Lopez had a brutal start to the year, but he’s picked it up over his last 7 starts, pitching to a respectable 3.64 ERA over that stretch. He’s coming off two straight starts of 7 innings pitched and 2 earned runs or less given up. He will NEED that kind of performance today against the Mets, who are smoking hot at the plate right now. The Mets counter with Luis Severino, who overall has pitched well this year, but has struggled more recently. The Twins suddenly find themselves tied with the division rival Royals for the 2nd Wild Card spot and just 2 games up on the Red Sox for the 3rd spot! Simply put, they NEED this game today. Manager Rocco Baldelli knows this and will surely use EVERY BULLPEN PIECE he has to today. The Twins have the better pitcher on the mound AND the urgency. If Lopez can continue his hot stretch, the Twins SHOULD be able to salvage the final game of this series.
Diamondbacks Money Line -174 FanDuel 5 Units
The Diamondbacks send their ace to the mound as they go for the SWEEP today! Zac Gallen is looking to turn the page in a stretch that’s seen him pitch to an ugly 4.80 ERA over his last 7 starts. However, this is the PERFECT matchup for him to excel in. The Nationals committed to trading pieces at the Trade Deadline and just don’t have the offensive firepower. Their starter today, young southpaw MacKenzie Gore, has also REALLY STRUGGLED recently, pitching to a GROTESQUE 7.63 ERA in his last 7 starts! Due to the BLOWOUT win last night, the Diamondbacks will have ALL of their premium bullpen arms available. They need every single win they can get as they enter just 0.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Diamondbacks have the better starting pitcher, better lineup, and ALL of the momentum coming into this game. Look for the Diamondbacks to win again as long as Zac Gallen pitches like he’s supposed to!
Reds Money Line -148 FanDuel 5 Units
The Reds are doing EVERYTHING they can to stay alive in the National League Wild Card while simultaneously burying their division rivals. They won the first 2 games of this series and send southpaw Nick Lodolo to the mound to go for the sweep! Lodolo has been solid overall this year despite pitching much worse at home than he has on the road. There should be some positive regression there at some point. It might as well come against a weak hitting Cubs lineup. The Cubs are going with righty Kyle Hendricks, who’s a shell of his former self. He has an ugly 2-9 record and 6.95 ERA. He’s been EVEN WORSE on the road this year, pitching to a 7.49 ERA away from Wrigley Field. He gave up 6 runs in his last road start and 9 runs over his last 2 starts, spanning just 10 innings. The Reds NEED this game and they have the better starting pitcher. They also have the momentum in this series. The Cubs have also been a BRUTAL road team this year, coming into play with a 24-33 record and scoring just 4.16 runs per game on the road. Look for the Reds to get the SWEEP today!
Astros Money Line -205 DraftKings 5 Units
The Astros have lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 10 games overall. Because of that, they’re now 1 game back of the Mariners for the AL West lead and 3.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot. They NEED southpaw Framber Valdez to step up today. He’s been good all year but has really turned it on over his last 7 starts, pitching to a 2.53 ERA. Righty Jake Woodford goes for the Pirates, and the Astros should FEAST on him! In 2 starts covering just 8.1 innings, he’s given up a WHOPPING 10 earned runs and 15 hits! This is just a ROUGH matchup for him, and the Astros will have a sense of urgency to get this win. Don’t be surprised to see all of the top arms coming out of Houston’s bullpen today, as this game is close to a MUST WIN for the Astros. If the Astros can get their offense going, Valdez SHOULD be good enough to ensure they salvage the last game of this series!
Rockies/Angels Over 8.5 Runs -155 DraftKings
These two teams combined for a whopping 17 runs last night and 13 of those runs came by the 4th inning! Tonight, both teams are using pitchers that have given up A TON of runs at times this season. The Rockies are going with southpaw Kyle Freeland. He has a 6.23 ERA on the year, but he’s been certifiably DREADFUL on the road this year, with a staggering 9.96 ERA away from Coors Field! He’s also been terrible in the 2 starts he’s made since the All-Star Break, giving up 8 earned runs in just 10 innings of work. Davis Daniel hasn’t been much better for the Angels. In just 3 starts this year he has an ugly 5.82 ERA. All of that damage came in the last 2 starts he’s made, giving up 11 earned runs! This SHOULD be a game that features A TON of offense. Neither team has a great bullpen either, which should only add to the firework festivities late in the game!
Giants Money Line -200 FanDuel 5 Units
The Giants let us down last night but now they’re sending their ace to the mound! Logan Webb has been a RARE bright spot for the Giants this season with a 3.72 ERA and 3.00 ERA at Oracle Park this year. He has struggled recently but today is as good of a bounce back game as one could hope for. The Athletics are one of the WORST teams in baseball and don’t have a great lineup. They’re scoring a paltry 3.77 runs per game on the road this year which isn’t going to cut it against a guy like Webb. The Athletics are going with veteran righty Ross Stripling, who has REALLY struggled this season. His 6.02 ERA leaves A LOT to be desired, and he’s been worse recently, giving up 15 earned runs in his last 3 starts! This has ALL THE MAKINGS of a bounce back game for the Giants, and if their ace can pitch like he’s able to, they SHOULD be able to get back in the win column.
Zac Gallen Over 4.5 Ks -146 FanDuel 5 Units
Gallen is averaging 5.4 strikeouts per home start this year and has gone over this line in 6 of his 9 starts. In 5 of those 6 games, he had 6 or more strikeouts and has as many as 10 strikeouts in a home start this year. He’s ALSO pitching deeper into games at home, averaging about 5.2 innings pitched per start at Chase Field this season. He’s coming off 6 innings pitched in his last start and needs to build on that success. The Nationals struck out 12 times yesterday, with 9 of those strikeouts coming from starter Ryne Nelson. Gallen absolutely has THE STUFF to make batters swing and miss. His biggest issue is control. If he can attack the strike zone today, he SHOULD be able to rack up the strikeouts and clear this line for the 7th time in 10 tries at home.
Clayton Kershaw Over 3.5 Ks -118 FanDuel 5 Units
Kershaw is coming off an impressive 6 strikeout performance in his first start of the season. The Padres don’t often strikeout a lot, BUT they did strikeout 11 times yesterday. He understandably only threw 72 pitches in his 1st start of the year, but he SHOULD have a little more rope today from manager Dave Roberts. What also goes in Kershaw’s favor is that the Dodgers bullpen is REALLY STRUGGLING right now. They have blown late leads in multiple games recently, including last night, and the game went into extra innings. Less confidence in the bullpen means Kershaw SHOULD be given more time to figure it out on the mound. If Kershaw can keep his pitch count under control, he SHOULD be able to strikeout 4 Padres batters and go Over this line!