Xam’s Daily Gems:
Phillies -1 -222 DraftKings
The Nationals are going with Patrick Corbin on the road? SAY LESS! Corbin has been little short of TERRIBLE this season. He comes into this road start with an ugly 5.98 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. In his last 7 starts, that jumps to a 7.25 ERA and 1.64 WHIP! He’s also been terrible on the road this season, compiling a 6.68 road ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Incredibly, his batting average against on the road is .350! The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola, who’s turning in yet another splendid season for the Phillies. He’s struggled a little bit in his last 7 starts, but he’s a proven veteran pitcher who knows how to win and keep his team competitive. The Phillies have the best homefield advantage in baseball, and with their blowout win last night, SHOULD have all of their premium bullpen arms available! The Nationals have struggled to score at times on the road, and the Phillies LOVE hitting at home! If Nola can get himself back on track, the Phillies SHOULD be able to win their 3rd straight game and 2nd game in this series!
Reds Money Line -130 FanDuel
The Reds have been SURGING recently, winners of 4 straight games and 7 of their last 10 games overall. They find themselves just 4 games back of the Braves for the last wild card spot in the National League. With a win tonight, they’ll get back to .500! Nick Martinez has quietly turned in a stellar season for the Reds. He’s recently been turned into a start, and early returns have been fantastic! He’s pitched 12 innings and given up exactly 0 earned runs! The Royals are a solid hitting team though, so this will be a good test for Martinez. The Royals counter with righty Michael Lorenzen. While he’s had a fine season overall, his numbers have skyrocketed over the last 7 games. He has an ugly 5.49 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in that stretch. His ERA, WHIP, and batting average against are all higher on the road than they are when he pitches at home. That’s REALLY good news for a Reds team averaging 5.8 runs per game over their last 10 games! The Royals have been inconsistent on the road, coming into tonight under .500 away from Kauffman Stadium. Playing after an off day also means the Reds SHOULD have their entire bullpen available as well! If Martinez can contain a quality Royals lineup, the Reds SHOULD be able to hit enough to get the job done.
Yankees -1 -162 DraftKings
The Yankees come into tonight’s game after a day off, while the Tigers finished off a sweep of the Mariners. That means the better team ALSO has a rest advantage! Gerrit Cole takes the ball for the Yankees. While he’s been inconsistent since returning from the IL this year, he’s the best pitcher in baseball when he’s healthy and on his game. This is a tough matchup for the Tigers, who have struggled to score runs ALL SEASON LONG! They’re BARELY averaging over 4 runs per game on the season. That number drops to a paltry 3.5 runs per game over their last 20! The Yankees, meanwhile, have one of the best and deepest lineups in the sport. The Tigers are coming off an emotional sweep while the Yankees were getting rested yesterday. The Yankees will be READY to take advantage of an inferior team, and if Cole can regain his old form, the Yankees shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES winning the first game of this series!
Pirates Money Line -126 FanDuel
WAKE UP BABE, IT’S PAUL SKENES DAY! The electric rookie that’s taken the league by storm takes the ball for the Pirates who are in the midst of a WOEFUL 10 game losing streak! Unfortunately, this losing streak has essentially ended any slim playoff hopes they had, but the Pirates always get excited when Skenes pitches. All he’s done since making his debut is make himself the odds-on favorite for National League Rookie of the Year and even vault himself into the outer edges of Cy Young talk in the National League! The Mariners are coming off a disastrous sweep at the hands of the Tigers. They have struggled to score all season long and it probably won’t get better tonight. They have averaged 3.4 runs per game over their last 10. Logan Gilbert has been awesome for the Mariners this year, but he got absolutely SHREDDED in his last road start, giving up 7 earned runs and failing to make it out of the 3rd inning! Coming off an off day, the Pirates SHOULD have their full complement of relievers available. If the Pirates can put some runs on the board, Skenes and the bullpen SHOULD be able to do the rest against a weak Mariners lineup!
Diamondbacks/Rays Over 7.5 Runs -122 FanDuel
The Diamondbacks come into play as arguably the hottest team in baseball. They have won 6 straight games, 9 of their last 10, and an incredible 18-3 over their last 21 games! They have ALSO scored the MOST runs in the entire sport! They have been SCORCHING HOT over the course of their winning streak, averaging a staggering 7.1 runs per game over their last 21 games! All of this is bad news for Rays starter Ryan Pepiot. While he’s pitched fine this year, this is a BRUTAL matchup against a team that’s rested! The Diamondbacks counter with righty Ryne Nelson. He’s been inconsistent this year and this is where this Play will likely be won or lost. The Rays have been ANEMIC offensively recently, which isn’t a surprise given they traded Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes at the Trade Deadline. They’re averaging JUST 3.55 runs per game over their last 20 games. Simply put, if they can produce much of ANYTHING offensively, the RED HOT Diamondbacks and their incredible lineup SHOULD take care of the rest!
Orioles Money Line -215 FanDuel
Corbin Burnes has been nothing short of EXCELLENT in his 1st season as a member of the Orioles. His 2.71 ERA and 12-4 record has vaulted him squarely into the Cy Young conversation in the American League. While he’s been good on the road, he’s simply been MASTERFUL in front of the Orioles faithful. He has a sterling 2.09 ERA, .241 batting average against, and 1.15 WHIP at Camden Yards. He’s also DOMINATED the Red Sox twice this season, pitching 7 innings in both starts against them and giving up a COMBINED 1 earned run! Furthermore, he’s only given up 5 hits in those 14 dominant innings. The reeling Red Sox are sending Cooper Criswell to the mound. He’s vacillated between being a starting pitcher and pitching out of the bullpen this year. He hasn’t been bad but this is just a BRUTAL matchup for him. The Orioles have the FAR better pitcher on the mound, are at home, AND have all the momentum! The Orioles can’t afford to take any days off as they come into play tied with the Yankees atop the AL East. If Burnes can pitch like his usual dominant self, the Orioles SHOULD be able to score enough to take the 2nd game of this series!
Mets -1 -181 DraftKings
The Mets were up 5-0 at home yesterday against one of the worst teams in baseball and lost. Coming off a devastating loss while in the playoff hunt, they’re in DESPERATE need of a win. Fortunately for them, Sean Manaea has been their most consistent starting pitcher this season. Despite a poor outing his last time out in Seattle, he has an impressive 3.44 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the year. Over his last 7 starts, that drops to 2.95 and 1.13, respectively. Before his last start, he had two consecutive starts going 7 innings and giving up 0 runs! His stats impressive at home as he has just a .219 batting average against and 1.19 WHIP when pitching at Citi Field. This is all BAD NEWS for a Marlins team that’s REALLY struggling to score runs. They’ve scored the FEWEST runs in the National League as a matter of fact. They’re averaging a WOEFUL 3.31 runs per game on the road! Tonight’s starter Roddery Munoz has A LOT going against him tonight. He’s been awful this year, pitching to a 5.67 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Mets have a DEEP lineup that SHOULD be able to produce tonight. If Manaea can get himself back on track, the Mets SHOULD be able to put yesterday’s brutal loss behind them and get back on track!
Padres/Rockies Over 10.5 Runs -151 DraftKings
The Padres have been one of the HOTTEST hitting teams in baseball recently. They’re averaging a WHOPPING 6.25 runs per game over their last 20 games! They’re playing with A TON of confidence right now and head to one of the best ballparks to hit in throughout the entire league. Coors Field is KNOWN for having wild and wacky offensive games. Rockies starter Cal Quantrill has been AWFUL recently, pitching to a 7.52 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his last 7 starts! The Rockies, despite being a poor hitting team for much of the year, have turned it on a little bit in the last few weeks. They’re averaging a respectable 4.8 runs per game over their last 20 game. They’re ALSO averaging 4.93 runs per game at Coors Field this season! That’s bad news for Padres starter Matt Waldron, who’s also struggled over his last 7 starts. He has a 5.08 ERA over that stretch. Both teams had the day off yesterday, so these lineups will be WELL RESTED for a matchup against two struggling pitchers. Combine all of this with the fact the Rockies have the HIGHEST bullpen ERA and WHIP in the sport, and this is a game PRIMED to soar Over this number! Don’t be surprised to see a good ole fashioned SLUGFEST tonight in Colorado!
Braves Money Line -152 FanDuel
The Braves got shutout by Logan Webb and the Giants yesterday, but they’ve been playing solid baseball recently. They have righted the ship after struggling with the fallout to injuries to a few different marquee players. Now, they get to take on one of the WORST teams in baseball! The Angels have lost 3 straight games and are a WOEFUL 26-38 at home this year! They have struggled to score runs all season long and are averaging less than 4 runs per game over their last 30 games. Without Mike Trout in the lineup this season, they’re scoring just 3.92 runs per game. That’s music to the ears of Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach, who’s really turned it on recently. He has a 3.95 ERA on the year and that drops to 3.07 over his last 7 starts! He also has a WHIP of 0.93 over that stretch, which is very impressive. He’s actually pitched better on the road this season than at Truist Park. He has a 3.79 ERA, .229 batting average against, and 1.04 WHIP! Jose Soriano has pitched fine for the Angels this season, but this will still be a tough matchup for him. He’s pitched to an ugly 4.43 ERA, .264 batting average against, and 1.38 WHIP at home this season. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna are still guys that are capable of doing damage. The Braves SHOULD also have their elite bullpen arms all ready to go in this one! The Angels entire tonight in the top 10 in bullpen ERA, so the Braves SHOULD be able to score some runs tonight. if Schwellenbach and the Braves bullpen can contain a WEAK Angels lineup, they SHOULD be able to get themselves back in the win column and continue their playoff push!