Xam’s Daily Gems:
Yankees -1 -126 DraftKings 5 Units
Gerrit Cole is on the mound at Yankee Stadium with the Yankees going for the series win? Yeah, the Yankees will be AMPED UP and ready to go in this one! Fresh off a blowout win last night, they’ll have EVERYONE locked in from the first pitch! Cole started off rocky in his return from an elbow injury, but he’s given up just 3 earned runs over his last 3 starts, and 1 earned run in his last 2 starts! It’s been a different story for Gavin Williams and his 5.02 ERA. He’s given up 5 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts and somehow his stats are far WORSE at home! He has an unsightly 8.66 ERA, .351 batting average against, AND 1.98 WHIP pitching at HOME! There should be some negative regression coming in his road starts. This is the PERFECT lineup to do it as the Yankees are one of the best hitting teams in baseball and arguably have the two BEST hitters in the game in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. If Cole can keep his good pitching streak going, a RESTED bullpen SHOULD be able to get it done!
Cubs -1 -151 DraftKings 5 Units
The Cubs ace takes the mound as they look to take the rubber game in their series against the Tigers. Thanks to a rain delay, Steele only pitched 2 innings, so he is WELL RESTED for this matchup against a weak hitting team. He’s been solid all season long, and there’s little reason to think he won’t be able to contain a lineup AVERAGING just 3.67 runs per game over their last 30! As is ALWAYS the case with the Cubs, the question of whether or not they can win rests not on their pitching, but their hitting. They have underwhelmed at the plate ALL SEASON long, scoring the EXACT same amount of runs this season as Detroit! However, they’re showing A LITTLE sign of life, averaging 4.35 runs per game over their last 20 games. If guys like Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Isaac Paredes can get it going, Chicago SHOULD be able to generate enough offense to get the job done and win the series.
Pirates Money Line -145 BetMGM 5 Units
WAKE UP BABE, IT’S PAUL SKENES DAY! The electric rookie takes the ball against the Reds who are coming back from a series in Toronto. There isn’t much to say about Skenes that hasn’t been said already! He has a 2.30 ERA on the year and a paltry 0.97 WHIP. At home, opposing batters are hitting just .228 against him. His numbers are even BETTER on the road this year, as incredible as that is for a rookie. This is all BAD NEWS for southpaw Nick Lodolo. He just got BLASTED for 8 earned runs in his last start and has an ERA over 7 in his last 7 starts! His numbers have also been A LOT worse at home than they have been on the road, so expect some negative regression there. The team and crowd just LOVES getting behind Paul Skenes and he has shown to have some of the best stuff in baseball ALREADY! If the lineup can get it going, expect the Pirates to take advantage of a tired divisional opponent and get the job done.
Blue Jays Money Line -166 DraftKings 5 Units
Fewer teams have been more disappointing than the Toronto Blue Jays this season. Coming off a 2023 season that saw them win 89 games, they have cratered this year and are in the basement in the AL East. Having said that, this is a Play that’s fading their opponent. The Angels are just a terrible baseball team. They have the 4th fewest runs scored in the American League and are averaging just 3.88 runs per game over their last 25 games! It’s been a similar struggle offensively for the Blue Jays, but they have recently begun to pick it up. They’re averaging 4.88 runs per game over their last 25 games. It was only a matter of time before guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Spencer Horwitz got the lineup going. If they can CONTINUE to hit, they SHOULD get the job done tonight at the Rogers Centre!
Braves Money Line -110 BetMGM 5 Units
The Braves lost a tough home game to the Phillies last night and now sit just 1.5 games up on the Mets for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. Spencer Schwellenbach takes the ball in the rubber game for the Braves, and he’s been nothing short of FANTASTIC recently. In his last 7 starts, he’s pitched to a sterling 2.86 ERA and 0.91 WHIP! That’s the type of pitching performance the Braves need with their offense the way it is right now. However, they SHOULD be able to find some success against southpaw Cristopher Sanchez. The lefty has been BRUTAL on the road this year, pitching to an UGLY 5.53 ERA, .322 batting average against, and 1.77 WHIP away from Citizens Bank Park! Also going for the Braves is that they NEED this game A LOT more than the Philies do. Sure, the Phillies would love the top spot in the NL East, or at least a bye in the 1st round, but the Braves are fighting for their playoff LIVES EVERYDAY! Expect manager Brian Snitker to manage that way tonight and deploy ALL of his top relievers as he needs to. If Schwellenbach can continue his recent run of success, look for the Braves to take the all important rubber game!
Orioles -1 -122 DraftKings 5 Units
The Orioles come into play tonight 1/2 a game back of the Yankees in the race for the AL East. They start a MASSIVE 4-game series at home against the Astros and they NEED their ace to come through tonight. Corbin Burnes has been FANTASTIC in his 1st season as a member of the Orioles. He has a 3.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the year which drops to a 2.91 ERA at home! His efforts on the year will undoubtedly earn him Cy Young award votes in the American League. Spencer Arrighetti, for the Astros, has REALLY struggled this year. He has a 5.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the season. That JUMPS to a 6.09 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and .275 batting average against on the road! That’s BRUTAL NEWS when your assignment is pitching in Camden Yards. The Orioles are averaging just under 5 runs per game at home this year and are averaging 5.13 runs per game in their last 30! Coming off a series loss to the Mets, they’ll be ANGRY and ready to go tonight!
Pirates Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -130 DraftKings 5 Units
The Pirates have been struggling to score recently, but they have the bats to make noise, and especially so at home. They are averaging 4.1 runs per home game this season. More importantly, however, is their opponent tonight. Nick Lodolo has struggled this season and is coming off a start where he surrendered 8 runs! Not only that, but the Reds had a long travel situation as they crossed the border from their series against the Blue Jays. The Reds had to use A TON of bullpen arms in Toronto, as NONE of their starters lasted more than 4.1 innings pitched! So we have a struggling starting pitcher on the mound AND a very tired bullpen to take over afterwards. This feels like a BREAKOUT GAME for the Pirates offensively!