Picks For 10-11

Picks For 10-11

Picks For 10-11 150 150 The Ultimate Lineup

Xam’s Gem(s):

Phillies Money Line -120

The Phillies lost a devastating game to Atlanta in Game 2, but they send Aaron Nola to the mound in Game 3 at home. Nola was dominant against the Marlins in the Wildcard Round, and in his career in the playoffs, he has pitched to a 3.86 ERA. He was inconsistent this year, but at home, he pitched to a 3.29 ERA. The Braves are countering with Bryce Elder, who did pitch well this year, to the tune of a 3.81 ERA. However, on the road, he pitched to a 4.05 ERA. Also, in his last 15 games this year, he pitched to an unsightly 5.49 ERA. Given the high stakes and hostile environment, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Elder have a short hook in this game.

Twins First 5 Innings Money Line -128

The Twins are facing elimination, so it’s all hands on deck tonight. Joe Ryan had an up and down year for the Twins, but at home, he pitched to 3.83 ERA. The Astros are countering with Jose Urquidy, who didn’t have a good year. He pitched to a 5.29 ERA, and an ERA just under 7 in night games! The Astros know they have Game 5 at home in their back pocket if the game doesn’t start in their favor. They may not be willing to use their best releivers if they get down early. On the other hand, the Twins won’t hesitate to utilize every arm they value in their bullpen. The crowd will definitely be fired up to send this series back to Houston.

Dodgers Money Line -126

The #2 seed in the NL is suddenly facing elimination, just 3 games into their pursuit of a World Series title. The Dodgers are turning to Lance Lynn tonight. He started the year with the White Sox, where he had a ghastly 6.47 ERA. He was better as a Dodger, with a 4.36 ERA in 11 games. Lynn also has plenty of experience pitching in the playoffs, with 58 career innings logged in the postseason. The Diamondbacks are turning to Brandon Pfaadt tonight. He pitched poorly this year, finishing the season with a 5.72 ERA. He was even worse at home, pitching to a 6.46 ERA. It goes without saying the Dodgers will use every valuable arm they have, but this game is about pride. They have the better pitcher on the mound and were the better team during the season. They have more than enough talent to extend the series.

Xam’s Prop(s):

Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Ks -148

Nola has been a strikeout machine at home, striking out almost 7 per game during the regular season. The Braves have struck out 20 times so far in this series. The Phillies have thrown 7 innings in relief so far in this series, so they could use a deep start from Nola tonight. In his start against Miami, he went 7 scoreless innings. When he’s on, he knows how to miss bats. In Nola’s 3 starts against Atlanta this year, he struck out 20 Braves hitters.

Joe Ryan Over 4.5 Ks -116

There is some risk here as Ryan will likely get pulled early if he doesn’t have his stuff right out of the gate, but Ryan has been a strikeout stud this year. Ryan averaged about 6.7 Ks per start this year. Ryan has had 5 or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 16 games! The Astros struck out 12 times in their Game 3 win yesterday, and they averaged over 8 strikeouts per game on the road this year. If Ryan can get off to a good start and pitch deep into this game, he shouldn’t have any issues striking out 5 batters tonight.