Xam’s Gem(s):
West Virginia/Houston Over 49.5 Points -114
Both teams come into this game averaging at least 26 points per game. West Virginia likes to pound the rock, and should have success at that tonight. The Cougars are allowing over 400 yards per game and just under 30 points per game. West Virginia’s preference to run the ball can shorten the game, and their defense is stout. However, Houston brings a high powered offense to the table. Houston has scored 28 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games. They’ve also surrendered 36 or more points 3 times in their last 4 games. Cougars QB Donovan Smith is off to a good start to the year, and should be able to find ways to exploit the West Virginia defense. That’s likely what this matchup comes down to. There’s no reason to think the Cougars will slow down West Virginia’s running game.
Phillies +1.5 -137
The Phillies are coming off a dominant win in Game 3 of their series against the Braves, and are looking to win tonight to get back to the NLCS. Needless to say, Citizens Bank Park will be a madhouse tonight, and the Braves haven’t shown the ability to match Phillies’ intensity. The Rangers are turning to Ranger Suarez tonight. He pitched Game 1 of this series and pitched 3.2 innings of scoreless baseball. The Braves are countering with ace Spencer Strider. He pitched well in Game 1 but did ultimately take the loss. Given the stakes of the game, neither starter may be long for this one. This is especially true for Strider. The Braves have no more room for error here. The Phillies have enough talent to win this game, and with the way their offense is clicking, it’s hard to see this one getting out of hand for them.
Broncos +10.5 -110
The Broncos face a monumental challenge heading to Kansas City on a short week. They are staring 1-5 in the face, and there’s rumors circulating about the team trading off some pieces before the Trade Deadline. However, there are things that work in their favor for tonight’s game. The weather isn’t supposed to be very good. Wind can end up playing a significant role in this game, which hurts Kansas City more than Denver. Both teams will want to run the ball early and often, which will shorten the game and likely lead to fewer possessions. Furthermore, the offense hasn’t been the issue for Denver this year. The defense has been historically bad, and there’s been some unfortunate turnvoers sprinkled in as well. However, superstar tight end Travis Kelce is banged up coming into this game. Kelce injured his ankle in their game against the Vikings last week. He’s expected to play, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in a limited role. In addition to all of that, running back Javonte Williams is off the injury report and will play tonight for Denver.
Xam’s Prop(s):
Russell Wilson Over 19.5 Rushing Yards -110
Wilson ran for 49 yards in the game against the Jets last Sunday. His legs have always been part of his game. The Chiefs have had multiple sacks in each of the last 4 games, and Denver is tied for 8th in the league in the number of sacks allowed. This implies Kansas City will get consistent pressure tonight, and with the wind making it harder to throw, Wilson should be more inclined to run to generate more offense. On two occasions this year, Russ has averaged 7 yards or more per run. This shows he still knows when to run, and can be effective doing so in the right moments.