Xam’s Daily Gems:
Hawks/Nets Over 218.5 Points -110
Risk: 5.50 Units
To Win: 5 Units
These two teams just played in Brooklyn, and the game went Over this number despite the Hawks not scoring 100 points. The Nets have been porous defensively most of the year, so the Hawks should have a better shooting game today. That game for the Hawks was their 3rd game in 4 nights and their 1st road game without Trae Young. The Hawks are averaging 120 points per game and the Nets are giving up about 114 points per game, so the Hawks should be able to produce offensively. Guys like Dejounte Murray, Jalen Johnson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and even Saddiq Bey are capable scorers. For the Nets, they should be able to score on a defense that’s giving up nearly 123 points per game. If Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Dennis Schroder can bring the same offensive energy they did a couple nights ago, we should have a shootout on our hands at the Barclays Center.
Avalanche 60 Minute Money Line +115
(For this bet to win, the Avalanche must win in regulation. Bet loses even if the Avalanche win in OT/Shootout.)
Risk: 5 Units
To Win: 5.75 Units
The Avs have finally gotten back to their winning selves, winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 10-1. The offensive has been reinvigorated and the defense has been better. Now, they are set to play against one of the hottest teams in the league. The Predators have won 7 straight games. They have vaulted themselves into wildcard positioning off the back of a solid offense. They have scored 194 goals on the year, but they’ve given up 189. These two teams have given up exactly 189 goals on the year, so we could certainly be in store for some fireworks tonight. The Predators have scored at least 4 goals in every game during their winning streak, so the Avs better be tight defensively. The key tonight will be Avs goalie Alexandar Georgiev. He’s been inconsistent this year but has been better recently. In 2 of his last 3 games, he faced great offenses in the Canucks and Stars. He gave up just 1 goal in both games. If he can bring that same intensity, the offensive firepower should be able to stay hot and keep the “Avalanche” of goals coming!
Maple Leafs 60 Minute Money Line +115
(For this bet to win, the Maple Leafs must win in regulation. Bet loses even if the Maple Leafs win in OT/Shootout.)
Risk: 5 Units
To Win: 5.75 Units
This matchup may be between the two hottest teams in the entire league. The Rangers are 9-1 in their last 10 games while the Leafs are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Leafs have been led by a dominant offense this year. Their 220 goals this year leads the entire Eastern Conference. Importantly, they have done well against Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin this year. In 2 games, they have 8 goals against him. We know Toronto can score, and especially so at home. They’re averaging a whopping 3.72 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena! The key tonight will be Leafs goalie Ilya Samsonov. He’s giving up 3.25 goals per game this season. If Samsonov and the Leafs can play some defense tonight, the offense should be able to get going and continue attacking a goalie and defense that they’ve had success against this season.
Bruins 60 Minute Money Line +120
Risk: 5 Units
To Win: 6 Units
The Bruins come into tonight’s game tied for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve been struggling recently. They’re just 3-2-5 in their last 10 games. They’ve played a lot of overtime games recently, but they’re coming off an impressive win against the Golden Knights in their last game. Overall, their defense has been great this year, as their 169 goals against would suggest. However, the defense has faltered in recent games. They’ve given up 35 goals in their last 10 games. They desperately need to tighten up defensively. Fortunately for them, the Islanders haven’t been great on offense this season. They are averaging less than 3 goals per game on the year, and have just 54 goals in their last 20 games. That’s just 2.7 goals per game. The Bruins have also had success against Isles goalie Ilya Sorokin. They’ve scored 8 goals against him in the 2 games Sorokin started. This game really comes down to what the Bruins can do defensively. We know they have all the offensive firepower to win this game. If they can tighten up defensively, their offensive stars David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Jake DeBrusk should be able to get the offense rolling and get Boston back on track for the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
Lakers -1 -108
Risk: 5.40 Units
To Win: 5 Units
The Lakers and Nuggets both come into this game on a winning streak and feeling good. Both teams have won 7 of their last 10 games. The Nuggets have won 5 straight games, while the Lakers are looking for their 3rd consecutive win tonight. Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and their 4th game since the 25th. The main difference coming into this game is that the Lakers need this game, while the Nuggets don’t. The Lakers are tied for the 9th/10th spot in the West with the surging Warriors. The last thing a veteran team needs is extra road games just to get into the playoffs. The Lakers have also been great at home. They’re 21-9 at Staples Center this year. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have shown themselves to be an average team on the road, at just 17-14. At 41-19 and just 1 game back of the top seed in the West, it goes without saying the Nuggets can win anywhere. The key tonight will be what the Lakers can do defensively. LeBron James will absolutely be locked in as he is just 9 points away from 40,000 for his career! The Nuggets are scoring just 110 points per game on the road this year. Jamal Murray is also banged up and may not play, and the Nuggets are coming into this game tired. Given they’re on the road, tired, and don’t need this game as much as their opponent, it’s the perfect letdown spot for the Nuggets. Look for LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and D’Angelo Russell to deliver a total team performance and give the Lakers a win they desperately need!
Fred VanVleet Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -136
Risk: 6.90 Units
To Win: 5 Units
Fred VanVleet has a great matchup in this game. In 3 games against Phoenix this season, he is averaging 18 points, over 4 rebounds, and over 5 assists per game. In the last 30 days, the Suns have been getting smacked around by guards. On the road this season, VanVleet is averaging 16.5 points, over 8 assists, and just under 4 rebounds per game. VanVleet should be well rested coming into this game as well, considering the Rockets have only played one game since the 27th. The game total projection helps us here as well. The Suns are scoring almost 120 points per game heading into tonight. The Rockets have to score tonight if they want to stay in this game. This is good news for their best facilitator and someone who can drain shots from beyond the arc. If the Rockets want to remain competitive in this game, they’ll need VanVleet to step up.