Xam’s Daily Gems:
Braves/Mets Over 7.5 Runs -118 FanDuel
The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball this season. They’re averaging over 5 runs per game and have the ability to score even more every night. Mets starter Jose Quintana has been awful against the Braves in his career, coming into tonight with a 6.55 ERA against Atlanta. Overall, Quintana isn’t having a great season, with a 5.20 ERA on the year. He has been better at home, but he’s been very hittable so far this season. He got waxed for 8 runs in just 2.2 innings in his last start, on the road against Tampa Bay. The Braves are coming into this game rested as they had a day off yesterday, so everyone in the lineup should be ready to go. The Braves are going with righty Charlie Morton tonight. Morton has a respectable 3.15 ERA on the year, but that does tick up to 4.15 on the road. The Mets will likely be the key to this Play tonight. Their offense has been inconsistent all year and they’re averaging just 3.58 runs per game at home this year. However, they scored 4 runs off Morton when these teams faced off in Atlanta earlier this year. If the Mets can find a way to plate a few runs tonight, the high-powered Braves lineup SHOULD take care of the rest!
Braves First 5 Innings Money Line -150 FanDuel
Charlie Morton has been locked in during his last 3 starts, giving up 4 earned runs combined against quality teams. He’s coming into this start with a full week off, having last pitched on the 3rd. A veteran pitcher getting a couple of extra days between starts is rarely a bad thing! The Mets have been very inconsistent offensively, and Morton has pitched well against them in his career. Mets southpaw Jose Quintana has pitched A LOT better at home this year than on the road, but he’s still given up 5 or more runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Braves scratched out 3 runs in 5.1 innings against the lefty earlier this year in Atlanta, and Quintana has struggled against the Braves throughout his career. The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball and SHOULD be able to score some runs tonight against a struggling pitcher.
Red Sox -1 -155 DraftKings
The Nationals are turning into one of the biggest pleasant surprises so far early in the season, coming into tonight’s game right at .500. However, southpaw Patrick Corbin has not been a main contributor for the team’s success. He comes into tonight’s start with a 6.45 ERA and that shoots up to 8.85 on the road this season! The Red Sox are coming off an off day after losing the last 2 games of their series to the Braves. Losing again tonight would drop them back to .500. Righty Tanner Houck goes for the Red Sox tonight, and he’s been nothing short of FANTASTIC this season. He comes into tonight with a 1.99 ERA and has thrown 4 straight quality starts! He’s given up 6 earned runs TOTAL in his last 4 starts! The Red Sox have the better starting pitcher, the better lineup, a rested bullpen, AND their home crowd behind them tonight. With the day off and losses in Atlanta, Boston’s premium bullpen arms should ALL be available tonight! If Houck can continue his recent performance and put up more zeroes tonight, the Red Sox SHOULD get themselves back on track!
Nuggets/Timberwolves Over 204 Points -112 FanDuel
The Nuggets suffered what might’ve been the most embarrassing loss in the Michael Malone/Nikola Jokic/Jamal Murray era in Game 2 of this series. They had no answers for Minnesota’s ferocious defense. Now, the series shifts to Minnesota and the Nuggets are in DESPERATE NEED of a win. The only way they get that win is by finding a way to successfully attack Minnesota’s stifling defense. The Nuggets averaged nearly 115 PPG during the regular season and averaged over 111 PPG on the road! In 4 games against the Timberwolves this year, they averaged 104.5 PPG. So, they know how to score against them. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. HAVE TO step up in ways they’ve done before. Expect them ALL to log big minutes tomorrow in what is essentially a MUST WIN game for the Nuggets! For Minnesota, they are led by Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Those guys will be ready and the stadium will absolutely be ROCKING. They have shown that they can score against Denver whenever they want. You don’t usually say this, but the key to this Play is the Nuggets. If they bring their offense tomorrow and find a way to put the ball in the basket, we shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES getting Over this number! These two teams went Over this number in 3 of the 4 games they played in during the regular season. Nikola Jokic will be READY to lead his team into battle and will find ways to keep Denver in this game!
Mariners Money Line -142 FanDuel
Righty Bryan Woo is set to make his first start of the year for the Mariners after starting the year on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He gets a pretty favorable matchup tonight, a home start against the Athletics. While the Athletics haven’t shown to be as bad as everyone thought they would be initially, they have struggled offensively for much of the year. They’re averaging less than 4 runs per game and are averaging 2.8 runs on the road in their last 10 games. They have been hitting recently, scoring 8 or more runs in each of their last 3 games and dropping a 20 spot earlier this month! All of that came at home, though. The Athletics counter with righty Paul Blackburn. He’s been good overall this year, coming into tonight’s start with a 3.00 ERA. However, that shoots up to 5.63 on the road this year! The Mariners have struggled to score runs this year, but their lineup, led by Julio Rodriguez, is simply TOO GOOD to continue struggling! The Mariners SHOULD have all of their premium bullpen arms available for this game. If they can score some runs tonight, Woo and the bullpen SHOULD take care of the rest against a similarly weak lineup!
Patrick Corbin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded -105 DraftKings
Corbin hasn’t always been effective this year, (or at all effective), but he has pitched deep into games. He has gone 5.1 innings or longer in 5 of his last 6 starts, which includes some tough matchups against the Dodgers and Phillies. If nothing else, he’s a veteran pitcher who knows how to get outs. In 4 road starts this year, he’s gone 20.1 innings, coming right to the brink of this number tonight. The Nationals did have a day off yesterday, but on Wednesday they played a 12 inning game which saw their bullpen pitch over 6 innings, they pitched 4 innings on Tuesday, they pitched another 6 innings last Sunday, and another 4 innings last Saturday! So even with a couple off days this week, the Nationals have used A LOT of bullpen arms recently. Even if the game gets out of hand or if Corbin struggles early, the Nationals may be inclined to let him go as far as he can to give their bullpen a break. If he can keep his pitch count under control and pound the strike zone, he should have EVERY OPPORTUNITY to clear this number yet again!
Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Ks -138 FanDuel
Morton is averaging exactly 5.5 strikeouts per start this year. He’s cleared this number in 2 of his 3 road starts this year, and landing on exactly 5 in the start where he didn’t clear this number. He only had 4 strikeouts against the Mets earlier this year, but he has 2 starts already this year with double digit strikeout totals, which shows he’s clearly capable of missing bats. With a full week of rest between starts, Morton should be fresh and ready to go against this divisional rival. Morton threw 98 pitches in his last start, so he’s fully stretched out and SHOULD be able to clear 100 pitches if he needs to. Morton had 26 strikeouts in 4 starts against the Mets last year, including 11 in one game! He’s a confident pitcher who has historically pitched well against this team and it SHOULD continue tonight! As long as he can keep his pitch count in check, he shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES clearing this number yet AGAIN!