Xam’s Daily Gems:
Blue Jays -1 -105 DraftKings
The Blue Jays send their ace Kevin Gausman to the mound as they look to even up this series against the Twins. Gausman has really turned it on recently, giving up just 1 earned run in his last 3 starts! In fact, he’s given up 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s been solid at home this year, pitching to a 3.06 ERA in 4 home starts. However, pitching hasn’t been the issue for the Blue Jays so far this season. They’ve scored just 136 runs on the year, which is just 3.57 runs per game. They’ve scored the 2nd fewest runs in the American League, in fact! The big hitters just haven’t turned it on yet. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are both off to slow starts. Despite the slow start, the Blue Jays have a lineup that’s capable of scoring runs. They face off against righty Simeon Woods Richardson. He’s gotten off to a great start this year, coming into this start with a 1.74 ERA. He’s been a little more ineffective on the road, as he only lasted 3.2 innings in his last road start. The story of this Play is also the story of the season so far for the Blue Jays: the lineup. With how Gausman is pitching and a rested bullpen, if the Blue Jays can score some runs, they SHOULD be able to win this game and even up the series. Their bats are too good to stay this quiet forever, and they’re in a spot for a breakout performance today!
Orioles -1 -130 DraftKings
Southpaw John Means makes his 2nd start of the season tonight for the Orioles. Means was battling a forearm injury and had Tommy John surgery in 2022, but he’s certainly a welcome sight for the Orioles. He was excellent in his 1st start, throwing 7 shutout innings against a tough Reds lineup on the road. Now, he comes back to the friendly confines of Camden Yards. The Diamondbacks have scored a lot of runs and given up a lot of runs this season. They’ve scored the 2nd most runs in the National League but are under .500 because they haven’t pitched very well. Righty Ryne Wilson has contributed to that. He comes into today’s start with a 5.23 ERA. He also doesn’t typically last long in games, pitching just 20.2 innings through 5 starts. The Orioles have been crushing the ball at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game at home. Even with their premium bullpen arms pitching yesterday, the Orioles were off Thursday so they should STILL have their premium arms available as needed. If Means can keep this powerful Diamondbacks lineup in check, the Orioles SHOULD be able to take the series with a win today!
Red Sox Money Line -152 FanDuel
We’re going right back to the Red Sox today! They let us down yesterday, but they’re in a great spot today. They send arguably their hottest starting pitcher, Cooper Criswell, to the mound. He has a SPARKLING 1.74 ERA through 5 starts. The Nationals counter with Jake Irvin, who comes into today with a 3.72 ERA. Irvin has actually been significantly better on the road than he has at home, but last year he pitched to a 4.89 road ERA last year, so there SHOULD be some negative regression coming his way. The Red Sox have really been struggling lately and have lost 3 straight games. Even after a day off on Thursday, they just didn’t show up last night, despite facing a pitcher that was really struggling. The Red Sox have the lineup to score runs. With the recent losses they’ll ALSO have their premium bullpen arms available. The Red Sox HAVE TO find ways to put runs on the board. Manager Alex Cora is going to pull out all the stops today as his team looks to even up this series. If the Red Sox break out of their mini offensive malaise, they SHOULD get the job done and send the fans home happy.
Braves First 5 Innings Money Line -150 FanDuel
The Braves did all of their scoring in the 3rd inning last night, and it was enough to get the job done for the Braves. They have arguably the best lineup in baseball, and now they face rookie Christian Scott who’s making his 2nd career start. He was very good in his 1st start, but that was against Tampa Bay. That is a weak lineup and he didn’t have to deal with a loud opposing ballpark either. The Braves are an entirely different beast. Scott will have to navigate a lineup that is as deep as it gets. Southpaw Max Fried is going for the Braves today. He’s DOMINATED the Mets throughout his career, coming into this start with a 2.65 ERA against them. As we know, the Mets have struggled for much of the year offensively. In 2 of his last 3 starts, Fried gave up 0 earned runs! The Braves are just on another level and have OWNED the Mets the last couple of years. The Braves have the better matchups across the board today.
Braves/Mets First 5 Innings Over 3.5 Runs -130 FanDuel
The Braves covered this number themselves yesterday by the 3rd inning! They simply have a tremendous lineup and will be facing a rookie pitcher making just his 2nd big league start. The Braves scored all of their runs in the span of 4 batters yesterday, which shows their ability to score in droves AND score quickly! This Play may very well depend on what the Mets can do offensively. They were stymied all night in the first game of this series and didn’t get on the scoreboard until the 7th inning. They have hitters that are capable of producing. Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Starling Marte form a formidable top of the lineup that can produce! Both Lindor and Alonso seem to be breaking out of some slumps, so they SHOULD be able to produce. Fried has a 4.23 ERA on the year and gave up 4 runs in his last road start, so he’s certainly hittable. If the Mets can produce ANYTHING at the plate, the Braves SHOULD be able to do the rest!
Tigers First 5 Innings Money Line -152 FanDuel
The Tigers turn to ace Tarik Skubal in this one as they look to even up the series against the Astros. The southpaw has been nothing short of fantastic this year, coming into this start with a 1.90 ERA. He’s given up just 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts! The Astros counter with righty Cristian Javier, who’s been very good this year as well. He has a 1.54 ERA on the year but that goes up to 3.38 on the road. He has a 4.24 road ERA in his career, so the Tigers SHOULD be able to scratch out some runs. That’s been their issue so far this season. They haven’t been scoring much and are averaging just 3.72 runs per game at home! They HAVE to find ways to manufacture runs today. Skubal SHOULD be able to keep the Astros in check. The key, as it usually has been for the Tigers this season, is the offense!
Hurricanes Money Line -156 FanDuel
The Hurricanes will be playing for their playoff lives tonight. They’re down 3-0 in the series, and it couldn’t be a much more heartbreaking deficit. They’ve lost 3 straight games by 1 goal, and the last 2 losses have been in overtime. They have outplayed the Rangers for BIG stretches in this series, but Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin has been the great equalizer and the best player in this series. The Hurricanes are obviously the more desperate team here, and they’re going to play all of their top guys for as many minutes as they can handle. Sebastian Aho, Jake Guentzel, and the rest of the team SHOULD have some pride tonight, and at the very least not end their season getting swept and losing the last 2 games at home. The Rangers have been playing with extreme intensity and passion, but they’ve also been fortunate in this series. It’s been a very evenly played series, despite the 3-0 series score. The key for the Hurricanes will be getting off to a good start and getting the crowd behind them. If the offense can get going early and they can play aggressively and a little loose, they SHOULD be able to force a Game 5 back at Madison Square Garden.
Guardians -1 -137 DraftKings
Triston McKenzie takes his turn for the Guardians, and he’s really turned it on recently. He’s gotten his ERA under 4 thanks to giving up just 6 earned runs in his last 4 starts. Mike Clevinger makes the start for the White Sox. He’s making his 2nd start of the year and he was completely ineffective in his 1st start. He lasted just 2 innings and gave up 3 earned runs to go with 4 walks. The Guardians have been one of the better offensive teams in the league and they need to SHOW IT today. They’ve lost the first 2 games of this series to the White Sox, one of the worst teams in the league! Losing 3 straight would be nothing short of embarrassing. The Guardians should have their ENTIRE bullpen of premium arms available. If McKenzie can keep the White Sox hitters in check, the Guardians SHOULD be able to get their offense going against an inferior pitcher.
Brewers -1 -127 DraftKings
Brewers ace Freddy Peralta takes his turn in the rotation. He has a solid 3.49 ERA coming into this start. He’s a pitcher that has A TON of confidence and would love nothing more than to help the Brewers claim the series win today. Kyle Gibson goes for the Cardinals tonight and he’s been pitching well, giving up 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts. He pitched well against Milwaukee earlier this year but that was in St. Louis. The Brewers have been rolling at home this year, scoring 5.13 runs per game at American Family Field this season. They dropped 11 runs yesterday in a rout of Game 1 of this series. The Cardinals have just been a disappointment so far this season and have lost 6 straight games! The Brewers have the 4th most runs scored in the National League and SHOULD have their entire bullpen of premium arms available. If Peralta can throw up some zeroes, the Brewers shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES putting runs on the board tonight!
Royals First 5 Innings Money Line -190 FanDuel
Royals ace Cole Ragans takes the mound tonight, and he’s been solid this season. In 3 games on the road this season, he has a 0.47 ERA! The Royals have been hitting all year. They have scored 49 runs in their last 10 games and have consistently hit throughout the season. The Angels counter with a southpaw of their own, Tyler Anderson. Anderson has been solid so far this season, with a 2.74 ERA. However, he’s given up 7 runs in his last 2 starts, spanning 12.1 innings. The Angels have also REALLY struggled offensively without Mike Trout this season. They’re scoring just 3.4 runs per game without him in the lineup. The Royals didn’t score until the 9th inning yesterday, so they’ll be ready to get back on track at the plate today. Ragans SHOULD be able to keep a weak Angels lineup in check tonight. The key will be guys like Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Maikel Garcia leading the offense and scoring some runs. If they can, the Royals SHOULD be able to win the first 5 innings with their ace on the mound!
Mariners Money Line -215 FanDuel
The Mariners are sending Bryce Miller to the mound to try and win the series against the A’s. Miller has been awesome this year, pitching to a 2.61 ERA and a 2.22 ERA at home! Joey Estes goes for the Mariners tonight. It’s his 1st start of the year in the majors. He had a ROUGH season in the minors. In 6 starts, he pitched to an ugly 6.04 ERA! The Mariners broke out offensively yesterday with 8 runs, and they SHOULD be able to pound out runs tonight. After the blowout win last night, the Mariners SHOULD have all of their premium bullpen arms available. The Mariners were a 90 win team in 2022 and they’re just at a different level than the Athletics.
Josh Giddey Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -130 FanDuel
This line may have moved to 12.5 but is 100% STILL PLAYABLE!
Giddey hasn’t played much in this series, totaling just 28 minutes in the first 2 games of this series. However, in limited minutes he’s still accrued some stats. He had 9 PRAs in Game 1 in 17 minutes and 10 PRAs in just 11 minutes in Game 2! He averaged over 25 MPG in the regular season and averaged 23.5 PRAs per game. In 4 games against the Mavericks this season, he averaged 19.9 PRAs despite averaging just 20 minutes per game. He has the ability to produce and now with the series tied 1-1, the Thunder will NEED some help with Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams drawing most of the attention. Giddey has shown an ability to produce in a VARIETY of ways and the Mavericks will give him those chances because he’s less likely to hurt them when compared to their other superstars. If head coach Mark Daigneault gives Giddey some minutes, he SHOULD clear this line and get the job done!
Phillies Team Total Runs Over 3.5 -145 DraftKings
The Phillies have been ROLLING offensively and have been for basically the ENTIRE SEASON! They have scored 64 runs in their last 10 games and have scored the 3rd most rusn in the National League with 199 runs. That’s 5.10 runs per game on average! Southpaw Jesus Luzardo goes for the Marlins today, and he’s been dreadful this season. In 5 starts he has an unsightly 6.58 ERA. He’s given up 14 runs in his last 3 starts! The Phillies are playing with A TON of confidence, and even against a lefty they have plenty of bats who can come through. The Phillies may be the HOTTEST hitting team in the league right now, and simply put there’s NO REASON to think a pitcher with a 6.58 ERA will slow them down.
Yankees Team Total Runs Over 3.5 -158 FanDuel
The Yankees have been a little hit or miss offensively recently, but there’s no question that they have an ELITE lineup and can absolutely MASH when they’re on. The Yankees are averaging 5 runs per game on the road this year, showing that their lineup can produce in enemy territory. They can still be dependent on the home run, but Juan Soto has really made the team more versatile offensively. Zack Littell goes for the Rays today, and he’s pitched well this season, to the tune of a 3.00 ERA. However, he’s actually been worse at home than he has been on the road this year. Last year when the Yankees faced him, they scored 4 runs off him. The Yankees are capable of scoring 4 runs in one inning, and with their increased speed and versatility, they SHOULD be able to manufacture runs today. If Aaron Judge and Juan Soto can get the lineup going, the Yankees shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES putting runs on the board!
Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 Made 3s -132 FanDuel
Tatum comes into this game just 2-10 from beyond-the-arc in this series. In fact, he has yet to hit more than two 3s in ANY playoff game this year. That’ll change tonight, in a game the Celtics REALLY need. They got blown out at home in Game 2 despite coming into the game as double-digit favorites. The Celtics need this game to take back homecourt advantage again. Tatum saw 38 minutes in Game 2 of this series, and he should see a similar workload tonight. On the road this year, Tatum hit 38.5% of his 3s on the road, so he is due for some positive regression tonight. Tatum has taken 14 or more shots in 6 of 7 games so far in the playoffs, so he’s being aggressive. Look for the Celtics to come out swinging early to try and regain control of this series. Of course, that involves getting their best player involved early and often. If Tatum can get his rhythm going early, he SHOULD be able to hit shots from beyond-the-arc and get his team back in control of this series!
Darius Garland Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -122 FanDuel
Garland cleared this number in Game 2 despite tallying just 4 assists, well below his season average. At home this season, he averaged 7 assists per game! After the Celtics got killed by Donovan Mitchell in Game 2, they’ll be hyper-focused on him in Game 3. This SHOULD leave Garland more room to operate. Garland averaged 29 PRAs in 3 games against the Celtics this season. The key will be Garland hitting his shot against a tough defense. He has shown he can and will impact the game in a VARIETY of ways! His workload SHOULD enable him to gather rebounds and assists. If he can hit his shots, he SHOULD clear this number yet again!
Al Horford Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -128 FanDuel
Horford has seen an increase in minutes since the injury to Kristaps Porzingis, and the Celtics will NEED his physicality tonight. Despite playing 29 minutes in Game 2, he finished with just 2 rebounds, well bow his season average of 6.4. What was encouraging from Game 2 was that he took 9 shots, including 7 3-point attempts, and hit 3 of them! If he does that again, he SHOULD be able to clear this number. He’s a proven veteran player who knows how to impact the game. He should have an easier chance for rebounds with Cleveland missing center Jarrett Allen once again. The Celtics will NEED his veteran presence tonight! If he can hit shots like he did in Game 2, he SHOULD be able to impact the game in other ways to clear this number and help the Celtics get a win!