Xam’s Daily Gems:
Phillies Money Line -168 FanDuel
Southpaw Cristopher Sanchez has a 2.83 ERA on the year and that goes down to 2.03 at home! The Phillies are 25-9 at home with quite possibly the best homefield advantage in the entire sport. They score an average of 5.59 runs per game at home and just have an incredibly deep lineup. They’re 25-9 at home! If Sanchez can hold a quality Brewers lineup in check, Philly shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES securing the series win!
Nationals +1.5 -156 FanDuel
The Nationals scored 7 runs yesterday and managed to cover this line thanks to a couple of runs in the bottom of the 9th. Now they face a pitcher who’s been bad on the road in his career and an exhausted Mets bullpen. David Peterson has a career 5.45 ERA away from home, and the Nationals are finding their stride offensively. Trevor Williams has been awesome for the Nationals, coming into today with a 2.22 ERA. The Nationals should be able to keep it close at home against a team they very well may be better then, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them win the game outright.
Yankees -1 -124 DraftKings
The Yankees are tied for the best record in baseball, have won 5 straight games, 8 of their last 10, and have the most runs scored in the American League (barely). Luis Gil has been nothing short of awesome for the Yanks, coming into tonight with a 1.99 ERA. Twins starter Bailey Ober has struggled this year with most of those issues coming on the road, with a 5.52 ERA. The Twins can hit, but after an off day, the Yankees SHOULD have a fully rested bullpen, and they have the better starter here. The Yankees usually rake at Yankee Stadium and it SHOULD contineu tonight.
Orioles Money Line -166 DraftKings
The Orioles go back to ace Corbin Burnes tonight, who’s been fantastic in his first season as a member of the Orioles. He has a sterling 2.35 ERA and hasn’t given up a run in 2 of his last 3 starts! The Orioles have one of the best lineups in baseball and it has shown with their consistency this season. They also didn’t use much of their elite bullpen yesterday thanks to their blowout win. The Blue Jays just can’t seem to get out of their own way and they come into tonight’s game unsure of who the starter will be! Back the better team with their ace on the mound.
Astros Money Line -148 FanDuel
It took a while last night, but the Astros got it together late to beat an inferior team. Now they face a starter who has a whopping 9.00 ERA at home this year and a career road ERA over 4! We should see some negative regression from Andre Pallante tonight. He had an ugly 6.42 road ERA in 2023! The Astros are a win away from getting back to .500 at Minute Maid Park. They are finally starting to hit as well, averaging 4.6 runs per game at home in their last 10 home games. Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti is coming off a scoreless road start in Seattle last week and has been MUCH better at home. If he can keep that form tonight, Houston SHOULD notch another win!
Cardinals/Astros Over 8.5 Runs -115 DraftKings
Both teams are throwing starters that have been inconsistent this year and have gotten lit up at times. Both teams also needed to use several bullpen arms, as neither starter went 6 innings yesterday. The Astros are starting to rack up the runs at home, and the Cardinals have a lineup that can do damage. Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti has an ugly 5.98 ERA this year, so the Cardinals SHOULD be able to score runs. If guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado show up for the Cardinals, we just may be in store for another night of fireworks at Minute Maid Park!
Diamondbacks Money Line -112 FanDuel
The Diamondbacks can get back to .500 at home this year with a win over their division rivals. It’s been a struggle for the reigning National League Champions, but it hasn’t been because of their offense. They’re averaging 4.63 runs per game and did a ton of hitting in their last series against the Mets. They have a lineup that can rake against ANY pitching staff! That doesn’t bode well for a Giants team that has struggled to score for much of the year. Southpaw Kyle Harrison has a 4.15 ERA on the year, but has actually been better on the road. However, last year, he had a 6.28 road ERA in 3 starts. With the off day yesterday, Arizona SHOULD have a fully rested bullpen, which finally got closer Paul Sewald back into the fold. If young lefty Blake Walston can hold the fort, Arizona SHOULD get the win to start off this series against their division rival!
Mariners Money Line -155 DraftKings
The Mariners send George Kirby to the mound, who has picked it up recently. While he has a 4.08 ERA on the year, he has a 3.35 ERA over his last 7 starts. Actually, he’s given up 1 earned run or less in 5 of his last 8 starts! He’s been a little inconsistent, but his stuff is ELITE! The Athletics have a weak lineup, averaging just 3.78 runs per game on the year. The Mariners, meanwhile, can shut down opposing lineups. They’re atop the AL West because they’ve given up just 223 runs this season, tied for the 3rd fewest in the American League. They’ve actually scored 1 less run than the A’s this year, but they SHOULD be able to score some runs off young starter Mitch Spence. He made his first career start last month and is still learning how to pitch. If the Mariners can score some runs off a young pitcher, they SHOULD capture the first game of this divisional series!
Nationals Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -140 DraftKings
The Nationals scored 7 runs yesterday, and did so nearly evenly against the Mets starter and their terrible bullpen. Tonight, they face another young pitcher who’s similarly struggled on the road. Mets southpaw David Peterson has an ugly 5.45 road ERA over his career, and they will need some length from him tonight. Pitching has been an issue all season for the Mets, and the Nationals are starting to figure it out offensively They pounded out 7 runs yesterday and have been hitting at home recently, averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last 10 home games. They showed yesterday that they have the ability to score early, fast, and often. It SHOULD be a similar story tonight!