Xam’s Daily Gems:
Astros Money Line -125 Fanatics
The Astros are coming off a sweep of the Red Sox, have won 5 straight games, and 7 of 10 overall! They’re playing with A LOT of confidence right now. They send southpaw Framber Valdez to the mound to try and keep the good times rolling! The Rays are still a good pitching team, but they’re hitting A LOT less since they traded big bats like Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes at the Trade Deadline. Valdez has been solid all season long and he came within 1 out of a no-hitter in his last start! He’s pitched almost exactly as well on the road as he has at home, too! Taj Bradley goes for the Rays, and he’s gotten LIT UP in his last 2 starts, giving up 9 earned runs and 13 hits over his last 2 starts, pitching just 9.2 innings over that stretch. With their BLOWOUT win yesterday in Boston, they SHOULD have their premium relief pitches ready to go! If Valdez can keep Tampa Bay in check, their lineup SHOULD be ready to go and get the job done!
Red Sox Money Line -130 Fanatics
The Red Sox have lost 4 straight games but they still find themselves just 3 games back of the last Wild Card spot in the American League. Somehow, they’ve been A LOT better on the road than they have been at home this season. They need to get it figured it out Fenway Park if they want to make it to playoff baseball. Brayan Bello goes for the Red Sox in a game they really need. He’s had an up and down season to say the least. He has a 5.16 ERA but he has been a little bit better post All-Star Break, coming into tonight with a 4.50 ERA. His average against and WHIP are significantly higher at Fenway Park, so there SHOULD be some positive regression there. Tyler Mahle makes his 2nd start of the year for the Rangers. He made it all the way back from Tomy John surgery back in May of 2023. This is a TOUGH matchup for him. The Red Sox are a solid hitting team. They average 4.53 runs per game at home, average 5.4 runs per game over their last 10 games, AND 6.3 runs per game in their last 20! Expect manager Alex Cora to manage this game with a real sense of urgency. If Bello can continue his recent run of relative success, the Red Sox SHOULD be able to score some runs and win the first game of this series!
Yankees -1.5 -185 DraftKings
The Yankees are coming off a series win over the Texas Rangers and now face quite possibly the worst team in modern baseball history. What else can be said about the White Sox that hasn’t already been discussed? At 27-91, they are not just clearly the worst team in baseball but one of the worst teams in the history of the sport. They are an unfathomable 2-27 in their last 29 games! They’ve scored the fewest runs in baseball and given up the most. Now, southpaw Ky Bush makes his 2nd career start after getting SMASHED in his first big league start! Bush wasn’t particularly good in Triple A this year either, and the Yankees boast one of the BEST lineups in baseball! Clay Holmes won’t be available after his workload yesterday, but starter Luis Gil and the rest of the bullpen SHOULDN’T have issues against this weak lineup. The Yankees have gotten back on track offensively and should go to WORK tonight! Every single game for them matters given they’re currently tied with the Orioles atop the AL East.
Diamondbacks -1 -183 DraftKings
The Diamondbacks are HOT right now, coming off a dominant sweep of the Phillies, widely considered one of the best teams in baseball. Now they face a division rival that’s been AWFUL on the road! The Rockies are 17-43 on the road and are averaging a paltry 3.65 runs per game away from Coors Field. That’s not going to work against the team that’s scored the most runs in baseball this year. They’ve been particularly tough to handle at home this year, as they are averaging 5.4 runs per game at Chase Field this season. Brandon Pfaadt is tasked with keeping Colorado’s lineup in check. The Rockies can score runs, as there weekend series with the Braves showed. However, Pfaadt has been really good at home, pitching to a 3.52 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s really turned it on recently, though. In his last 7 starts, he has a SPARKLING 2.66 ERA and 0.96 WHIP! Cal Quantrill has been bad on the road, with a 5.10 ERA and 1.42 WHIP coming into tonight. He’s been downright AWFUL over his last 7 starts, with an ugly 7.52 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his last 7 starts. It’s all shaping up for Arizona to keep the good times rolling. If Pfaadt and the bullpen can keep Colorado’s lineup in check, the lineup SHOULD take care of the rest!
Padres -1 -114 DraftKings
Perhaps no team is hotter in baseball right now than the San Diego Padres. Despite losing yesterday, they’re an incredible 16-3 over their last 19 games! Their lineup has been SCORCHING HOT, averaging 6.3 runs per game during this 19-game stretch. Joe Musgrove has had a brutal time of it this year, coming into tonight with an ugly 5.66 ERA. However, he’s given up a total of just 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts and didn’t issue a single walk in 2 of those starts, so he may be turning it around. The Pirates have a tough lineup, but the Padres went out and built an elite bullpen at the Trade Deadline for games EXACTLY like this! Southpaw Marco Gonzales is the likely starter for the Pirates tonight. It’s a tough matchup for him and the Pirates. Coming off a loss yesterday, the Padres SHOULD have their elite bullpen arms ready to go! If Musgrove can continue his recent run of success, the Padres SHOULD be able to score enough to get the job done tonight in front of the Padres faithful!
Braves/Giants Over 6.5 Runs -112 FanDuel
The Braves FINALLY woke up from their offensive slumber over the weekend, scoring 24 runs over the weekend at Coors Field. That it’s Coors Field should be taken with some context, but the Braves are clearly better offensively than what they’ve shown in recent weeks and for large portions of the year. They face tough southpaw Blake Snell tonight. He’s been great recently, with a 1.65 ERA over his last 7 starts. However, he got off to a TERRIBLE start this year and, on the year, has a 4.31 ERA. He hasn’t given up an earned run in 4 of his last 6 starts! While that’s obviously an incredible run, there will be some negative regression there at some point, of course. The Braves counter with their own tough lefty, Chris Sale. He’s currently the favorite to win the Cy Young award in the National League and has been nothing short of excellent. However, with a Total this low, it takes a lot of things to go right! Both starting pitchers have to be on their game AND the bullpens have to be as well. The Braves will likely find a way to manufacture some runs tonight. The Giants are averaging a respectable 4.39 runs per game at home this year. If they can get NEAR that total tonight, we SHOULD be able to get Over this number!
Astros Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -130 Fanatics
The Astros have FINALLY gotten their offense going and scored 5 or more runs in every game they played against the Red Sox over the weekend. Now, they face a starting pitcher that has STRUGGLED recently! Taj Bradley has given up 9 earned runs over his last 2 starts. The Astros are a veteran team that has home run hitters and contact hitters up and down the lineup! The Rays also have a MUCH weaker bullpen since they traded star reliever Jason Adam at the Trade Deadline. Take the offense that’s scorching hot that has EVERYTHING to play for against a team that’s officially looking to next year and beyond.
Ky Bush Over 4.5 Hits Allowed -135 DraftKings
Ky Bush only gave up 2 hits in his 1st start, but that’s because he gave up a whopping 5 walks! Coming off that start, he will likely be a little less nervous and be focused on throwing strikes. That SHOULD give the Yankees PLENTY of chances to get hits. They are one of the best lineups in baseball. Not only do they have two of the best hitters in baseball in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, they have a deep lineup filled with guys like Austin Wells, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton that are capable of producing. Contrary to what the fans and pundits may say, these guys strike FEAR into opposing pitchers. The biggest concern isn’t whether or not the Yankees can hit Bush, it’s whether or not Bush will have the control to ALLOW the Yankees to swing the bat! The Bronx Bombers are hot and feeling themselves. They’re going to come LOCKED IN against an inferior team and pitcher.
Clayton Kershaw 5+ Ks -170 Fanatics
Kershaw has cleared this line in 2 of his 3 starts this year. In order for the Dodgers to get to where they want to go this year, they’ll need Kershaw to regain at least SOME of his old form! He only threw 81 pitches in his last start as the team continues to ramp him up, but they may have a longer leash for him tonight. The Dodgers have used A TON of relievers over the last week. Before yesterday, they didn’t have a starter go 6 innings in a game and they are coming off an extra inning game yesterday as well. If Kershaw can keep his pitch count under control, manager Dave Roberts SHOULD give Kershaw more rope as he hopes to try and save his bullpen!