Xam’s Daily Gems:
Pirates Money Line -108 FanDuel 2 Units
Paul Skenes has understandably gotten all the attention since being called up by the Pirates, but Mitch Keller is quietly putting together another impressive season. He has been nothing short of FANTASTIC at home this season, pitching to a SPARKLING 2.58 ERA, .228 batting average against, and 1.11 WHIP. He pitched 6 innings and gave up just 2 earned runs in his only start against the Cubbies this season. Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon has been AWFUL for the Cubs recently. He’s given up 4 earned runs or more in each of his last 3 starts and 4 of his last 5, with 3 of those starts coming on the road. He’s just not anywhere near the same pitcher when he pitches on the road. His 4.65 ERA, .265 batting average against, and 1.24 WHIP is bad news in this game. If Pittsburgh can get their offense going early, Keller and the bullpen SHOULD be able to get the job done!
Astros/Phillies Over 8 Runs -105 DraftKings 2 Units
These are two offenses that are able to score runs in BUNCHES when they’re on. The Phillies are averaging a WHOPPING 5.7 runs per game in their last 10 games AND average 5.31 runs per game at home this season! Astros start Ronel Blanco has REALLY struggled recently, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The Phillies shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES putting up some runs tonight. The key to this Play will be what the Astros can do against Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been excellent this season, putting himself squarely in the Cy Young conversation in the National League. However, the Astros have a battle tested lineup that knows what it takes to hit elite pitching! If they can produce ANYTHING, the Phillies SHOULD take care of the rest to go Over this number!
Red Sox Money Line -154 FanDuel 2 Units (Game 2, not the suspended game)
The Red Sox have lost 3 straight games and suddenly find themselves 4.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot in the American League. They NEED to get themselves back on track ASAP. Nick Pivetta takes the ball in what is a MUST WIN game against the division rival Blue Jays. He’s really struggled this year and even more so in his last 7 starts, but he’s actually pitched better on the road than he has at Fenway Park this season. In other words, we SHOULD start seeing some positive regression for him. Jose Berrios goes for the Blue Jays, and he’s been just BRUTAL pitching on the road this season. He has a 4.91 ERA, .257 batting average against, and 1.28 WHIP on the road. That’s BAD NEWS facing a Red Sox team averaging almost 5 runs per game over their last 20 games. Manager Alex Cora KNOWS how important this game is so expect him to manage with that urgency. If Pivetta can get back on track, the Red Sox SHOULD be able to get the job done at home!
Mariners Money Line -120 FanDuel 2 Units
Bryce Miller is putting together a very nice season for the Mariners, but he’s absolutely DIALED IN recently. He has a BEAUTIFUL 1.99 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last 7 starts! He’s given up a grand total of 2 earned runs over his last 3 starts! That’s TERRIBLE NEWS for a Rays team scoring just 3.1 runs per game over their last 20 games! They have continuously struggled to score since they traded away guys like Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes at the Trade Deadline. Ryan Pepiot has pitched well for the Rays and is on a nice run himself, and of course, the Mariners only go as far as their lineup takes them. The Mariners NEED this game. They’re 4.5 games back of the Astros for the AL West lead and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. If the offense can produce some runs, Bryce Miller and the bullpen SHOULD care for the rest!
Nationals Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -120 DraftKings 2 Units
You may be surprised to learn that the Nationals are averaging 4.47 runs per game over their last 30 games and are averaging 4.8 runs per game at home over their last 10 home games. This is a bad team, but the lineup isn’t the primary reason why. Even without Lane Thomas in the lineup, whom they traded at the Trade Deadline, the Nationals have been producing runs. They also face a starting pitcher who’s been AWFUL for large portions of the season. Nestor Cortes has gone 7 innings shutout innings in back-to-back starts, and he STILL has an ERA of 5.79 in his last 7 starts! He’s also been HORRIBLE on the road, pitching to a 5.45 ERA, .287 batting average against, and 1.43 WHIP on the road. The Nationals have a quiet confidence about them offensively, and that will show itself once again tonight!