Xam’s Daily Gems:
Jets -2.5/Chiefs -2.5 5 Point Teaser -110 FanDuel 3 Units
We don’t typically recommend parlays or teaser wagers, but the Jets and Chiefs are two teams playing GREAT football while playing teams that have their work cut out for them today. The Jets host the Broncos today. The Jets had a “mini-bye” this week, as they haven’t played since opening Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos have done A LOT of traveling recently, having played the Commanders on the road last week. They played great and got their first win of the year, but it’s a lot to expect rookie Bo Nix to be able to handle one of the best defenses in football. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a high level right now and with the extra time to rest and recover, he will know where to exploit the Broncos defense. Expect a heavy dose of Breece Hall as well, arguably the best all purpose running back in the league. MetLife Stadium will be ROCKING and ready to go. If the Jets can avoid the turnovers and play complimentary football, they SHOULD be able to handle an offense led by a rookie QB in a hostile environment!
The Chiefs are 3-0 despite inconsistent quarterback play and superstar tight end Travis Kelce not producing much. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet for a reason and he WILL figure it out! The Chiefs have good complimentary playmakers such as Xavier Worthy and Carson Steele is showing himself to be a solid replacement for the injured Isiah Pacheco. However, this Play is more about their opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers. Rookie left tackle Joe Alt will likely miss this game, and that’s bad news for an injured Justin Herbert. Herbert has been dealing with a high ankle sprain. Herbert was ineffective before getting hurt last week in Pittsburgh. If the defense for Kansas City can step up like they have ALL YEAR, Patrick Mahomes SHOULD get the offense on track and ensure they get the job done.
Bears Money Line -160 BetMGM 3 Units
The Bears come into this game at 1-2 and need to get their season back on track. Rookie phenom Caleb Williams hasn’t lived up to expectations and has struggled out of the gate. The Rams are coming off an emotional slugfest against the 49ers and now have a long way to travel for an early game. Matthew Stafford is missing his top two weapons in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. While he figured out ways to move the ball last week, it’ll be tough sledding against an under the radar Bears defense. They’ve given up no less than 21 points this season and have been adept at forcing turnovers to aid their rookie QB. The key to this Play will be how Caleb Williams handles LA’s aggressive defense. Look for the Bears to try and establish a running game and get Williams into the game with quick passes and potentially moving him around the pocket. If Caleb can protect the football, don’t be surprised to see Chicago come out on top!
Texans -2.5 -192 DraftKings 3 Units
The Texans have a chance to all but end a division rival’s season on their home field before we hit October. The Jaguars are coming off a DISASTROUS 37-point loss on the road, and now have a short week ahead of them! Trevor Lawrence just isn’t playing with ANY confidence right now, and head coach Doug Pederson just doesn’t look like he knows what he’s doing. The Texans are coming off their own ugly Week 3 loss, as they got blasted by 27 points in Minnesota last week. CJ Stroud and the offense NEEDS a bounce back performance. Despite last week’s no show performance, the Texans have elite playmakers on BOTH sides of the ball. They have the better QB, are at home, AND have a rest advantage. The crowd will be raucous and ready, and it’s unclear if the Jaguars have what it takes to turn this ship around. Look for Stroud to come out and try to get it going early to build that confidence. The Jaguars just don’t have the guys to slow Houston down.
Mets Money Line -120 BetMGM 3 Units
The Mets have been COMPLETELY uncompetitive in 3 straight games and quite simply NEED to find a way to win a ballgame. They still have a VERY clear path to the playoffs and could even get in today. Southpaw David Peterson is tasked with getting the Mets back on track. He’s put together his BEST SEASON as a pro, pitching to a 3.08 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He’s pitched to similar stats over his last 7 games, when the Mets have needed him most. Pitching on the road hasn’t impacted either, as he has a SPARKLING 2.88 ERA, .246 batting average against, and 1.26 WHIP. Colin Rea will go in the regular season finale for the Brewers today. He’s been quite inconsistent this year, pitching to a 4.17 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, he’s been DREADFUL over his last 7 starts, posting a 7.43 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. His ERA sits at 4.89 with a .278 batting average against and 1.26 WHIP post All-Star Break. The Brewers likely won’t be using their top bullpen guys in this game either, so they remain fresh for the Wild Card series. The Mets have EVERYTHING to play for and we should see every single quality bullpen arm today. If the Mets can get the offense going, the pitching SHOULD be able to put up zeroes and get the job done!
Diamondbacks -1 -142 DraftKings 3 Units
The Diamondbacks have been in TOTAL FREEFALL recently and need a win today in order to save what little chance they have at the postseason. The Padres are locked into the top Wild Card spot in the National League, meaning they have NOTHING to play for and likely want to get some rest for their key starters. Southpaw Martin Perez will take the ball for the Padres. While he’s pitched well recently, he’s been AWFUL on the road this season. He has a 5.57 ERA, .290 batting average against, and 1.56 WHIP. Quite simply, this is a pitcher that the Diamondbacks SHOULD be able to hit. Despite being shutout last night, they have an ELITE lineup. They have scored the MOST RUNS in the sport this year! Brandon Pfaadt has had an up and down season, and he’s been particularly BRUTAL recently, but this is a prime matchup for him to get right and put a quality start together. Expect to see every high quality reliever Arizona has as well. This game is shaping up to be a game Arizona gets and they DESPERATELY need this win!
Braves -1 -163 DraftKings 3 Units
The Braves will clinch a playoff spot with a win today, regardless of what the Mets or Diamondbacks do in their games. The Braves have been ON POINT recently, winning 5 straight games and 7 of their last 10. They’ve had some GREAT pitching performances and veteran Charlie Morton will look to continue that trend today. He’s really turned it on recently, pitching to a 3.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over his last 7 starts. He’s ALSO been MUCH more effective at Truist Park than he has been on the road this season, pitching to a 3.54 ERA, .256 batting average against, and 1.35 WHIP across 16 starts. Righty Alec Marsh has been inconsistent this season and is pitching to a 5.01 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over his last 7 starts. Quite simply, the Royals don’t need this game and would probably prefer getting guys some rest before the playoffs begin. How motivated will they be in this road game? The Braves are a SOLID home team and they’ll officially punch their ticket to the playoffs today!